JO

Johnson Outdoors Inc

JOUT
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Johnson Outdoors Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • TTM operating loss of -39.6M (-7% margin) vs industry median of -5% - losses deeper than peers despite 563M revenue base[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF of 34.5M TTM despite net loss of -39.5M - working capital release (35.5M AR reduction) masking operational weakness[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Trading at 0.78x P/S vs industry median 1.9x with 158.7M cash (36% of market cap) - deep value or value trap[P/S Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Inventory: Rises above 175M or inventory/revenue exceeds 32%Would signal demand deterioration and future margin pressure from liquidation
  • Operating Margin TTM: Returns to positive territory (>0%)First sign of turnaround - validates cost cuts or demand recovery
  • Dividends Paid Per Share TTM: Cut or suspendedDividend cut would signal management capitulation but preserve cash

Bull Case

Net cash position (158.7M cash vs 46.9M debt) with P/B of 1.02x provides downside protection - trading near tangible book of 430.7M

Cash and EquivalentsP/B RatioTangible Book Value

FCF positive at 34.5M TTM despite losses - if revenue stabilizes, operating leverage could drive rapid margin recovery

Free Cash Flow TTMOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

Negative ROIC of -7.5% TTM destroying shareholder value - paying 1.32/share dividend (3.4M annually) while losing 39.5M unsustainable

ROIC TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTMNet Income TTM

Revenue decline (-3.9% 3Y CAGR) with bloated inventory (163.7M) signals potential margin pressure from future markdowns

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthInventory

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Turnaround unlikely without revenue stabilization - 3Y revenue CAGR of -3.9% signals structural demand issues

1-3ymed
  • Outdoor recreation spending normalizing post-COVID
  • Inventory of 163.7M (29% of revenue) suggests channel destocking
  • R&D at 30.9M (5.5% of revenue) insufficient for product refresh
Revenue 3Y CAGR: -3.9% vs industry +5.8%Operating margin: -7% TTM vs prior profitabilityInventory days elevated vs historical
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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