LN

Lincoln National Corp

LNC
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Lincoln National Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-24

Snapshot

  • P/E of 3.9x vs industry median 13.8x - trading at 72% discount despite ROE of 24% (TTM) vs industry 14.5%[P/E Ratio]
  • Negative FCF of -178M (TTM) despite 2.1B net income - cash flow from ops -1.1B signals earnings quality concerns[Free Cash Flow]
  • Revenue declining -1.5% 3Y CAGR and -3.1% 5Y CAGR while industry median grows 9% - structural headwinds[Total Revenue 3Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash Flow from Continuing Operating Activities: Turns positive and exceeds 1B annuallyWould validate earnings quality and close gap between net income and cash generation
  • Total Revenue 3Y Growth: Inflects to positive growthRevenue stabilization needed to justify current profitability sustainability
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 1.0xBalance sheet deterioration would pressure already-stressed cash flows

Bull Case

Extreme valuation discount: P/E 3.9x (72% below peers), P/B 1.0x near book, EV of 3.5B vs 2.1B net income implies <2x EV/earnings

P/E RatioP/B RatioEnterprise Value

Capital efficiency outperformance: ROE 24% and ROIC 13.5% both 2x industry medians despite revenue headwinds

ROEROIC

Bear Case

Negative operating cash flow (-1.1B) and FCF (-178M) while reporting 2.1B net income - accrual vs cash disconnect is red flag

Free Cash FlowCash Flow from Continuing Operating Activities

Structural revenue decline: -3.1% 5Y CAGR vs industry +8% growth - market share loss in competitive insurance market

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthTotal Revenue 3Y Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Valuation gap likely to narrow as operating cash flow normalizes toward net income levels

1-3ymed
  • Working capital consumed 1B TTM - likely non-recurring
  • Net income 2.1B provides earnings power baseline
  • P/B at 1.0x near tangible book of 8.3B
Net margin 11.4% vs industry 10.9% medianROIC 13.5% vs industry 6.3% medianDebt/equity 0.61x manageable
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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