LS

Landstar System Inc

LSTR
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Landstar System Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • ROIC of 12.8% TTM vs industry median 4.5% - nearly 3x capital efficiency with minimal asset base (capex just 14M)[Return on Invested Capital]
  • FCF of 199M TTM (4.2% yield) while industry median is NEGATIVE - asset-light model generates cash peers cannot[Free Cash Flow]
  • Revenue down 12.8% 3Y CAGR vs industry -4.5% - freight recession hitting harder than peers[Total Revenue 3-Year Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue TTM: Sequential quarterly growth turns positiveSignals freight cycle inflection - operating leverage should amplify earnings recovery
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 3% (industry median)Would indicate structural cost issues, not just cyclical pressure
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 150M or turns negativeAsset-light thesis depends on consistent FCF generation through cycles

Bull Case

Asset-light brokerage model: 14M capex vs 232M industry median generates 199M FCF - 14x capital efficiency enables consistent shareholder returns through cycles

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMROIC TTM

Fortress balance sheet: 375M cash, 0.14 debt/equity positions for opportunistic M&A or accelerated buybacks at cycle bottom

Cash and EquivalentsDebt to EquityWorking Capital

Bear Case

Revenue decline of 12.8% 3Y CAGR (3x worse than industry -4.5%) suggests market share loss, not just cycle - premium valuation at risk

Total Revenue 3-Year GrowthTotal Revenue TTM

P/E of 35x and P/CF of 24x vs industry medians of 30x and 7.6x - priced for recovery that may not materialize

P/E RatioP/CF RatioP/S Ratio

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion likely as freight cycle recovers - operating leverage intact despite volume decline

1-3ymed
  • Operating margin 4.1% TTM held above industry 3.1% despite 12.8% revenue decline
  • Asset-light model (14M capex) means minimal fixed cost drag
  • 375M cash provides M&A optionality at cycle trough
Operating margin TTM 4.1% vs industry median 3.1%Capex TTM 14M vs industry median 232MDebt/equity 0.14 vs cash 375M
Valuation Context
Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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