LT

LTC Properties Inc

LTC
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LTC Properties Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 53.2% vs industry median 17.8% - 3x advantage from triple-net lease structure with minimal operating costs[Operating Margin]
  • Current debt 548M (58% of total debt) due near-term vs 18M cash - refinancing risk in rising rate environment[Current Debt]
  • EPS TTM declined 49% YoY despite only 6% gross profit decline - interest expense (33M) consuming margin gains[EPS Growth 1Yr]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Rises above 40M (20% increase) — Would consume 33% of operating income, pressuring dividend coverage
  • Current Debt: Refinancing terms announced — Rate and maturity terms will determine 2027+ earnings trajectory
  • Net Income TTM: Falls below 26M (dividend level) — Would signal unsustainable payout requiring cut or asset sales

Bull Case

FCF TTM 131M (57% of revenue) fully covers 105M annual dividend with 25% cushion - triple-net model requires zero capex

Free Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Gross margin 83% and operating margin 53% provide buffer against tenant credit issues - well above industry medians

Gross Margin TTMOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

548M debt maturing soon with only 18M cash - forced refinancing at higher rates could cut EPS 20%+ given 33M current interest

Current DebtCash and EquivalentsInterest Expense TTM

ROE 3.6% and ROIC 1.9% both below industry medians - capital allocation destroying value despite high margins

ROE TTMROIC TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Dividend sustainability at risk if refinancing rates exceed current cost of debt

3-12mmed
  • 548M current debt requires near-term refinancing
  • Dividend payout (26M) exceeds net income (34M) - 77% payout ratio
  • Interest expense already 27% of operating income
FCF TTM 131M covers dividend but leaves thin bufferDebt/equity 0.99x limits additional leverage capacityCash position only 18M vs 548M current debt
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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