MA

Mastercard Inc

MA
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Mastercard Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 59.2% TTM vs industry median 13.9% - 4.3x advantage from network economics with minimal incremental costs per transaction[Operating Margin TTM]
  • ROIC 54.1% TTM on 26.9B invested capital - every dollar deployed generates 54 cents annually, rare capital efficiency[ROIC TTM]
  • Tangible book value negative (-7.3B) with goodwill 121% of equity - asset-light model but acquisition-dependent growth[Tangible Book Value]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 55%Signals competitive pressure or regulatory impact on take rates - core thesis invalidator
  • Total Revenue 3Y Growth: Declines below 10%Would indicate digital payments TAM saturation or share loss to alternatives
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: FCF/Net Income falls below 100%Currently 114% - deterioration signals earnings quality issues

Bull Case

Duopoly network effects: 59% operating margins with 14.3% 3Y revenue CAGR - pricing power + volume growth simultaneously

Operating Margin TTMTotal Revenue 3Y Growth

Capital-light compounder: 54% ROIC generating 16.3B FCF annually on just 2.3B PPE - minimal reinvestment required

ROIC TTMFree Cash Flow TTMPPE

Bear Case

Premium valuation: P/E 34x vs industry 12.2x median, P/S 15.5x vs 3.1x - requires flawless execution to justify

PE RatioPS Ratio

Debt/equity 2.4x with 19B total debt - leveraged balance sheet vulnerable to rate environment or regulatory fines

Debt to EquityTotal Debt

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
62%

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Forward Thesis

FCF margin expansion to 55%+ as digital payments penetration accelerates in emerging markets

1-3yhigh
  • Current FCF margin 51.8% TTM with capex only 3.7% of revenue
  • Revenue 3Y CAGR 14.3% vs industry 5.1% - share gains continuing
  • Operating leverage: 77.5% gross margin flows to bottom line
FCF 16.3B TTM on 31.5B revenueEPS 5Y CAGR 22.1% vs revenue 14.3% - margin expansion provenCapex -1.2B TTM, minimal reinvestment needed
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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