MC

McKesson Corp

MCK
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McKesson Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-1.7B) with negative working capital (-8.1B TTM) - gets paid 61B before delivering, funding operations with supplier float[Working Capital]
  • Asset turnover of 4.9x TTM vs industry median 2.2x - capital-light model generates 387B revenue on 84B assets[Asset Turnover]
  • FCF of 6.0B TTM on razor-thin 1.0% net margin - distribution scale converts tiny margins into massive cash[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Accounts Payable: Decline >10% from 60.9BSignals supplier terms tightening - destroys negative working capital advantage
  • Operating Margin: Falls below 1.0% TTMAt 1.4% margin, small compression eliminates FCF generation capacity
  • Free Cash Flow: Drops below 4B TTMBuyback program sustainability requires 5B+ annual FCF

Bull Case

Negative working capital (-8.1B) creates permanent float advantage - 61B payables vs 54B receivables+inventory funds growth without debt

Working CapitalAccounts PayableTotal Debt

Scale moat with 387B TTM revenue at 4.9x asset turnover generates 6B FCF annually for buybacks despite 1% margins

Total RevenueAsset TurnoverFree Cash Flow

Bear Case

Negative equity (-1.7B) with 9.8B debt means 100% of enterprise value is debt-funded - no margin of safety in distress

Total EquityTotal DebtTangible Book Value

P/E of 24.7x on 1.0% net margin business - 223% EPS growth is buyback-driven, not operational leverage

PE RatioNet MarginEPS Growth 1yr

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF yield compression as healthcare distribution consolidation matures

1-3ymed
  • Top-3 distributors control 90%+ of market
  • Drug pricing pressure from PBMs and government
  • Biosimilar adoption reducing per-unit economics
FCF 6.0B on 387B revenue = 1.6% FCF margin TTMOperating margin 1.4% TTM near structural ceilingEPS growth 223% 1yr reflects buybacks not operations
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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