MO

MidWestOne Financial Group Inc

MOFG
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MidWestOne Financial Group Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • FCF of 78.9M TTM on 238.8M revenue = 33% FCF margin with minimal capex (3.5M), funding 29% dividend payout ratio sustainably.[Free Cash Flow]
  • Goodwill of 69.8M is only 11.5% of equity (606M) vs typical bank M&A risk - tangible book of 503.9M provides solid floor.[Goodwill]
  • Interest expense TTM of 112M exceeds total revenue growth rate (4.2%) - NIM compression risk in current rate environment.[Interest Expense]

Watch Triggers

  • Net Margin: Falls below 20% (currently 24.5% TTM)Would signal NIM compression accelerating; directly impacts ROE sustainability thesis.
  • EPS Growth 3Y: Remains negative for another quarterConfirms structural earnings headwind vs cyclical; invalidates 5Y growth narrative.
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 0.25 (currently 0.16)Would indicate balance sheet stress or aggressive expansion reducing margin of safety.

Bull Case

P/B of 1.7x vs tangible book of $24.33/share creates 17% downside cushion; P/E of 12.4x below industry median 12.6x despite above-median ROE.

P/B RatioP/E RatioTangible Book Value

5Y EPS CAGR of 32.8% far exceeds industry median 8.4% - demonstrates earnings power through rate cycles despite 3Y compression.

EPS Growth 5YEPS

Bear Case

Interest expense of 112M TTM is 47% of revenue (238.8M) - highly rate-sensitive; any NIM compression directly hits bottom line.

Interest ExpenseNet Margin

3Y EPS decline of -11.2% vs industry median -0.1% signals recent earnings deterioration despite longer-term track record.

EPS Growth 3YNet Income

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

ROE of 10% sustainable as debt/equity of 0.16 leaves capacity for loan growth without dilution.

1-3ymed
  • Low leverage (0.16 D/E) vs industry
  • Strong FCF conversion (95% of operating CF)
  • Minimal capex requirements (<2% of revenue)
ROE TTM 10% at industry medianFCF 78.9M vs OCF 82.4M TTMCapex only 3.5M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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