Millrose Properties Inc
MRP
Millrose Properties Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Inventory of 8.4B is 93% of current assets and 143% of equity - land bank model creates massive working capital (8.8B) but ties up capital.[Inventory]
- Operating margin 63% TTM vs industry median 18% - 3.5x advantage from asset-light lot development model with minimal cost of revenue (15% of gross profit).[Operating Margin TTM]
- FCF deeply negative (-1.8B TTM) despite 192M net income - land acquisition consuming all cash, funded by 979M net debt issuance.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Inventory: Declines >10% QoQ without proportional revenue increase — Would signal distressed lot sales or impairments rather than healthy monetization
- Interest Expense: Exceeds 50M quarterly or 25% of pretax income — Debt servicing consuming margin indicates funding stress
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive or negative burn rate slows >50% — Signals transition from land accumulation to monetization phase
Bull Case
Trading at 0.87x book with 8.4B land inventory - if lots sell at book, equity upside is 15%+ before any operating income contribution.
63% operating margin with 0.34 debt/equity provides flexibility - can fund 1.8/share dividend (5.8% yield) while growing land bank.
Bear Case
Housing downturn risk: 8.4B inventory is 20x annual revenue - extended selldown period if homebuilder demand weakens.
Negative FCF (-1.8B) requires continuous debt funding - 2.0B total debt with 44M interest expense already consuming 21% of pretax income.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Land bank monetization will drive FCF inflection as lot deliveries accelerate without proportional capex
- 8.4B inventory ready for conversion
- Zero PPE purchases indicates asset-light model
- 63% operating margin preserves cash on sales
Public Strategies Rankings
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MRP Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$5.15B | — | ||
$6.87B | — | ||
24 | — | ||
$410.96M | — | ||
$1.31 | — | ||
63.2% | — | ||
46.7% | — | ||
$-1.78B | — | ||
0.03 | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
MRP Dividend History
2026
$0.75002025
$1.8000MRP Stock Splits
MRP SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
10/23/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/31/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/14/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/31/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
01/17/25 | 09/30/24 | 424B1 | |
10/28/24 | 06/30/24 | DRS/A | |
06/30/24 | 06/30/24 | DRS/A | |
05/14/25 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q |