MS

Microsoft Corp

MSFT
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Microsoft Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 46.3% vs industry median 0% - exceptional pricing power and scale advantages in cloud/enterprise software[operating_margin_ttm]
  • ROIC TTM 27.1% on 406B invested capital - generating 110B+ annual value creation above cost of capital[roic_ttm]
  • Capex TTM 69B (23.5% of revenue) signals aggressive AI infrastructure buildout - 4x typical software company intensity[capital_expenditure_ttm]

Watch Triggers

  • operating_margin_ttm: Falls below 42%Would signal AI investments eroding core profitability without offsetting revenue
  • free_cash_flow_ttm: Drops below 60BCapex intensity outpacing operating cash flow would challenge self-funding model
  • capital_expenditure_ttm: Exceeds 80B without revenue accelerationDiminishing returns on AI infrastructure spend

Bull Case

Capital efficiency elite: 27% ROIC with 0.17 debt/equity generates 78B FCF TTM while investing 69B in AI infrastructure - self-funding growth engine

roic_ttmfree_cash_flow_ttmdebt_to_equity

Margin fortress: 46% operating margin vs 0% industry median creates massive reinvestment capacity and downside protection in slowdowns

operating_margin_ttmgross_margin_ttm

Bear Case

Valuation stretched: P/E 35x vs industry median 30x and P/S 12.5x vs 3.9x median prices in significant AI success already

pe_ratiops_ratio

Capex intensity risk: 69B TTM capex (up significantly) may pressure FCF if AI revenue growth disappoints expectations

capital_expenditure_ttmfree_cash_flow_ttm

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
62%

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Forward Thesis

AI monetization will accelerate revenue growth from 8-10% to 12-15% while maintaining 45%+ operating margins

1-3ymed
  • Azure AI services pricing premium vs base cloud
  • Copilot enterprise adoption driving Office 365 ARPU expansion
  • R&D spend (33B TTM) already embedded in cost structure
R&D 33B TTM (11% of revenue) funds AI without margin hitOperating margin 46% provides cushion for AI investmentFCF 78B TTM funds growth without dilution

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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