MS

Strategy Inc

MSTR
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Strategy Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • Goodwill/intangibles of 73.2B represent 99.4% of total assets - this is a Bitcoin holding company, not a software business[Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets]
  • Tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-20.9B) while trading at 50.1B market cap - 100% premium-to-BTC thesis[Tangible Book Value]
  • Core software revenue of 475M TTM with 0.2% 5Y CAGR - legacy business is stagnant, irrelevant to valuation[Total Revenue 5 Year Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 0.25 from current 0.16Signals leverage increasing faster than BTC appreciation - margin call risk rises
  • Interest Expense: Exceeds 100M annuallySoftware EBITDA can't cover - forces equity issuance or BTC sales
  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 30M54M cash with -63M operating cash flow TTM - liquidity crisis in 6-9 months

Bull Case

Unique leveraged BTC vehicle via convertible debt arbitrage - 8.2B debt at low rates funds BTC accumulation without equity dilution at current prices

Total DebtLong Term DebtDebt to Equity

ROE of 28% and ROIC of 21% TTM driven by BTC mark-to-market gains - if BTC appreciates, returns amplify on levered structure

ROEROICGain on Sale of Security

Bear Case

Negative tangible book (-20.9B) means equity is 100% dependent on intangible BTC valuation - 30% BTC decline wipes equity cushion

Tangible Book ValueGoodwill and Other Intangible Assets

Operating loss of -41M TTM on 475M revenue - software business burns cash, requiring perpetual capital raises to service 70M interest expense

Operating IncomeInterest ExpenseCash Flow

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

MSTR premium to NAV will compress as Bitcoin ETFs commoditize leveraged BTC exposure

1-3ymed
  • ETF alternatives offer simpler, cheaper BTC exposure
  • Convertible debt strategy adds complexity risk
  • Premium requires perpetual capital markets access
8.2B total debt vs 54M cash TTMNegative FCF of -37.5B TTM from BTC purchasesP/S of 105x vs median 3.9x reflects BTC, not software

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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