What are the investment strengths of NextDecade Corp (NEXT)?

8.6B of LNG infrastructure nearing completion with contracted offtake could generate 2B+ annual EBITDA, implying current 8.1B EV is 4x forward EBITDA Continued debt market access (1.5B raised TTM) validates project economics and provides runway to first gas

What are the investment risks for NextDecade Corp (NEXT)?

43.7x debt-to-equity with zero revenue - any construction delay, cost overrun, or LNG price collapse risks equity wipeout Negative 429M working capital and -3.7B FCF TTM requires continuous capital market access; credit market closure is existential

NextDecade Corp

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NextDecade Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.

As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

Zero revenue TTM with 8.6B PPE and 6.8B debt - pure pre-revenue LNG development play with extreme binary outcome profile[Total Revenue TTM]
Debt-to-equity of 43.7x with 6.4B net debt vs 154M equity - survival depends entirely on project completion and LNG pricing[Debt to Equity]
Capex of 3.6B TTM building Rio Grande LNG; 1.5B new debt issued TTM funds construction through critical phase[Capital Expenditure TTM]

Watch Triggers

Total Revenue TTM: First revenue recognition >0 — Signals Train 1 commercial operations - transforms investment thesis from development to operating
Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 150M without new financing — 209M cash vs 1.2B current liabilities; liquidity crisis would force dilutive raises
Long Term Debt: Exceeds 7.5B or covenant breach — 6.75B debt already at extreme levels; additional leverage signals distress or delays

Bull Case

8.6B of LNG infrastructure nearing completion with contracted offtake could generate 2B+ annual EBITDA, implying current 8.1B EV is 4x forward EBITDA

PPEEnterprise Value

Continued debt market access (1.5B raised TTM) validates project economics and provides runway to first gas

Net Long Term Debt IssuanceCash Flow from Continuing Financing Activities

Bear Case

43.7x debt-to-equity with zero revenue - any construction delay, cost overrun, or LNG price collapse risks equity wipeout

Debt to EquityTotal Revenue TTM

Negative 429M working capital and -3.7B FCF TTM requires continuous capital market access; credit market closure is existential

Working CapitalFree Cash Flow TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

35%

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Forward Thesis

Rio Grande LNG Train 1 completion transforms NEXT from cash-burning developer to contracted cash generator

1-3ymed

8.6B PPE represents near-complete LNG infrastructure
Long-term offtake agreements provide revenue visibility
Global LNG demand growth supports pricing power

PPE of 8.6B vs 10B total assets (86% of assets)1.7B financing inflows TTM shows capital accessInterest expense 49M manageable vs EBITDA 41M pre-revenue

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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NEXT Fundamentals

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction → Support Activities for Mining

Metric	Value	YoY Growth	Industry Percentile
Market Cap	$1.35B		—
Enterprise Value	$7.89B		—
P/E Ratio	0.00		—
Total Revenue - TTM	$0		—
Earnings Per Share (diluted) - TTM	$-1.96		—
Operating Margin - TTM	0%	0.0%	—
Net Margin - TTM	0%	0.0%	—
Free Cash Flow - TTM	$-3.71B		—
Return on Common Equity - TTM	-0.47	-2.2%	—
Beta 5Y (Monthly)	unknown		—

NEXT Dividend History

No dividends

NEXT Stock Splits

No stock splits

NEXT SEC Filings

Filing Date	Report Date	Report Type	Filing Link
10/30/25	09/30/25	10-Q	0001612720-25-000030
08/01/25	06/30/25	10-Q	0001612720-25-000009
05/06/25	03/31/25	10-Q	0001628280-25-022731
02/28/25	12/31/24	10-K	0001628280-25-008841
11/07/24	09/30/24	10-Q	0001628280-24-046336
08/14/24	06/30/24	10-Q	0001628280-24-037219
05/13/24	03/31/24	10-Q/A	0001628280-24-022756
05/09/24	03/31/24	10-Q	0001628280-24-022349
03/11/24	12/31/23	10-K	0001628280-24-010236
11/13/23	09/30/23	10-Q	0001437749-23-031608
08/14/23	06/30/23	10-Q	0001437749-23-023665
05/11/23	03/31/23	10-Q	0001437749-23-013939
05/13/24	03/31/23	10-Q/A	0001628280-24-022756
03/10/23	12/31/22	10-K	0001437749-23-006171
11/10/22	09/30/22	10-Q	0001437749-22-026905
08/11/22	06/30/22	10-Q	0001437749-22-020104
05/12/22	03/31/22	10-Q	0001437749-22-012132
03/28/22	12/31/21	10-K	0001437749-22-007396
11/10/21	09/30/21	10-Q	0001437749-21-026144
08/02/21	06/30/21	10-Q	0001437749-21-018142
05/13/21	03/31/21	10-Q	0001437749-21-012050
03/25/21	12/31/20	10-K	0001437749-21-007153
11/04/20	09/30/20	10-Q	0001437749-20-022517
08/06/20	06/30/20	10-Q	0001437749-20-016870
05/18/20	03/31/20	10-Q	0001437749-20-011074
03/03/20	12/31/19	10-K	0001437749-20-004261
11/05/19	09/30/19	10-Q	0001437749-19-021598
08/06/19	06/30/19	10-Q	0001558370-19-007245
05/07/19	03/31/19	10-Q	0001558370-19-004273
03/06/19	12/31/18	10-K	0001558370-19-001591
11/09/18	09/30/18	10-Q	0001558370-18-009175
08/09/18	06/30/18	10-Q	0001558370-18-006903
05/09/18	03/31/18	10-Q	0001558370-18-004473
03/08/18	12/31/17	10-K	0001558370-18-001737
11/08/17	09/30/17	10-Q	0001558370-17-008579
08/09/17	06/30/17	10-Q	0001213900-17-008399
05/15/17	03/31/17	10-Q	0001213900-17-005218
03/10/17	12/31/16	10-K	0001213900-17-002160
11/14/16	09/30/16	10-Q	0001213900-16-018504
08/15/16	06/30/16	10-Q	0001213900-16-016029
05/20/16	03/31/16	10-Q	0001213900-16-013671
04/01/16	12/31/15	10-K	0001213900-16-012174
11/03/15	09/30/15	10-Q	0001213900-15-008148
08/13/15	06/30/15	10-Q	0001213900-15-006025
05/18/15	03/31/15	10-Q	0001213900-15-003961
09/30/14	09/30/14	S-1/A	0001213900-15-000460
05/31/14	05/31/14	S-1/A	0001213900-14-007197