NF

Netflix Inc

NFLX
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Netflix Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 29.1% vs industry median 3.7% - 8x advantage drives 10.4B net income on 43.4B revenue[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Goodwill 32.6B is 126% of equity (25.9B) - negative tangible book value of -6.7B creates impairment risk[Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets]
  • FCF TTM 9.0B on capex of just 608M (1.4% of revenue) - asset-light model funds buybacks without debt[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 25%Signals content cost inflation outpacing revenue growth - thesis invalidation
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 6BWould indicate content spend acceleration or subscriber growth stall
  • Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets: Impairment charge announcedContent library devaluation would crush already-negative tangible equity

Bull Case

ROIC of 26.4% TTM vs industry median 5.4% with debt/equity of 0.56 - generates excess returns at low leverage, enabling 9B+ annual FCF for buybacks or M&A

ROIC TTMDebt to EquityFree Cash Flow TTM

Revenue 43.4B is 40x industry median (1.1B) with 29% operating margins - scale moat widens as smaller competitors struggle to fund content

Total Revenue TTMOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

P/E 40.4x vs industry median 25.2x and P/S 9.7x vs median 1.1x - premium valuation requires flawless execution with no room for subscriber misses

PE RatioPS Ratio

Negative tangible book value (-6.7B) with 32.6B goodwill - content library write-downs could materially impair equity

Tangible Book ValueGoodwill and Other Intangible Assets

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion to continue as content amortization peaks while ad-tier scales

1-3ymed
  • Content library leverage - fixed costs spread over growing subs
  • Ad-tier ARPU accretion without proportional content spend
  • Password sharing crackdown converting freeloaders to paid
Operating margin 29.1% TTM already 8x industry medianFCF margin 20.7% with minimal capex requirementsROE 42.9% indicates efficient capital deployment

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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