NT

NetApp Inc

NTAP
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NetApp Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • ROIC of 34.3% TTM vs industry median -22% - exceptional capital efficiency on 3.5B invested capital generating 1.2B net income[Return on Invested Capital]
  • Goodwill of 2.7B is 277% of equity (986M) - tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-1.8B), creating impairment overhang[Goodwill]
  • FCF of 1.7B TTM (25% margin) funds 420M dividends + buybacks while debt/equity of 2.8x remains elevated[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • EPS Growth 3Y: Turns positive or accelerates decline below -30%Current -22.8% trajectory determines if margin strength offsets volume pressure
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge announcedAt 277% of equity, even 20% writedown eliminates half of book value
  • Free Cash Flow: Falls below 1.4B TTM (20% margin)Underpins dividend safety and deleveraging capacity at 2.8x debt/equity

Bull Case

Capital-light model: 70% gross margin, 25% FCF margin, 34% ROIC on minimal capex (2.8% of revenue) creates durable shareholder returns

Gross MarginFree Cash FlowROICCapital Expenditure

Valuation reasonable at 19x P/E vs industry median 27x despite superior profitability - FCF yield of 7% supports buybacks

P/E RatioFree Cash FlowMarket Cap

Bear Case

Negative tangible book (-1.8B) with goodwill at 277% of equity - any impairment directly hits already thin equity base of 986M

GoodwillTangible Book ValueTotal Equity

3Y EPS decline of -22.8% signals structural headwinds despite current profitability - growth inflection needed to justify multiple

EPS Growth 3YEPSOperating Income

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
60%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation enables accelerated deleveraging or capital returns despite negative tangible equity

1-3yhigh
  • 1.7B annual FCF vs 2.7B total debt
  • Capex under 3% of revenue (184M)
  • Operating margin 22.6% vs industry 0%
FCF margin 25% TTMNet debt only 414MROIC 34% sustaining returns

EPS contraction risk if storage demand softens - 3Y EPS CAGR already -22.8%

3-12mmed
  • Negative EPS growth trajectory
  • High operating leverage structure
  • Competitive cloud storage pressure
EPS 3Y growth -22.8%R&D 996M (15% of revenue)Working capital down 381M
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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