NV

NVIDIA Corp

NVDA
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NVIDIA Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 58.8% TTM vs industry median 2.4% - 24x advantage driving 99.2B net income on 187.1B revenue[Operating Margin TTM]
  • 3Y revenue CAGR 113% with EPS CAGR 264% - extreme operating leverage as AI demand scales fixed R&D base[EPS Growth 3yr]
  • ROIC 96.5% TTM on 127.4B invested capital - every dollar deployed generates nearly a dollar of annual profit[ROIC TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 65%Signals pricing pressure from AMD/custom silicon - would compress operating margin toward 50%
  • Inventory: Exceeds 25B or grows faster than revenueIndicates demand slowdown or product transition issues - 19.8B currently
  • Total Revenue 3yr Growth: Decelerates below 50% CAGRCurrent 113% CAGR justifies premium - deceleration reprices multiple

Bull Case

FCF yield 1.7% on 4.5T market cap but 77.3B annual FCF enables massive buybacks/M&A without leverage - cash generation exceeds most S&P 500 market caps

Free Cash Flow TTMDebt to EquityCash Flow TTM

ROIC 96.5% vs industry median -0.3% indicates near-monopoly pricing power in data center GPUs - structural moat from CUDA ecosystem lock-in

ROIC TTMOperating Margin TTMGross Margin TTM

Bear Case

P/S 24.3x vs median 3.0x and P/E 45.9x prices in perfection - any growth deceleration triggers multiple compression on 4.5T base

PS RatioPE RatioMarket Cap TTM

Inventory +4.8B and receivables +5.6B signal potential demand pull-forward or channel stuffing risk ahead of product transitions

Change in InventoryChanges in Account ReceivablesWorking Capital

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
60%

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Forward Thesis

Margin compression likely as competition intensifies and hyperscalers diversify supply

1-3ymed
  • AMD/Intel accelerating GPU roadmaps
  • Google/Amazon custom silicon scaling
  • China export restrictions limiting TAM
Gross margin 70% near historical peakR&D 16.7B TTM (8.9% of revenue) risingInventory up 4.8B suggesting build ahead

FCF generation sustains premium valuation if AI capex cycle extends through 2027

1-3yhigh
  • 77.3B FCF TTM (41% margin)
  • Capex only 3.1% of revenue
  • Minimal debt (0.09 D/E)
Cash flow 83.2B TTM vs 10.5B total debtWorking capital 90.4B provides cushionAsset-light model (PPE only 12.1B)
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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