ON

Onconetix Inc

ONCO
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Onconetix Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 18.2M is 539% of equity (3.4M) - single impairment event would wipe out entire book value[Goodwill]
  • Working capital -15M with only 837K cash vs 16.3M current liabilities - acute liquidity crisis[Working Capital]
  • TTM revenue 1.2M generating -49M net loss - burning 40x revenue annually[Net Income TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 500K or new equity raise announcedAt -7.5M burn rate, sub-500K cash means weeks of runway
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge recorded18.2M goodwill vs 3.4M equity - impairment = negative equity
  • Total Revenue TTM: Quarterly revenue exceeds 500KWould signal commercial traction and potential path to viability

Bull Case

Gross margin 85% TTM vs industry median 51% suggests valuable IP if scale achieved. Revenue 1.2M is early-stage but positive.

Gross Margin TTMTotal Revenue TTM

Enterprise value 1.3M implies market pricing near-zero probability of success - asymmetric upside if any product gains traction.

Enterprise ValueMarket Cap TTM

Bear Case

Tangible book value -14.8M means equity is entirely goodwill. Any impairment triggers insolvency. Debt/equity 0.05 misleading.

Tangible Book ValueGoodwill

Operating loss -7M on 1.2M revenue (-575% margin) with R&D near zero suggests no path to profitability.

Operating Margin TTMResearch and Development TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
15%

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Forward Thesis

Company faces existential funding crisis within 6 months without capital raise

3-12mhigh
  • Cash burn of 7.5M TTM vs 837K remaining
  • Current liabilities 16.3M exceed total assets ex-goodwill
  • Already raised 9.3M equity TTM, diluting shareholders
Cash 837K, FCF -7.5M TTMWorking capital -15MStock issuance 9.3M TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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