OR
Orchid Island Capital Inc
ORC—
Orchid Island Capital Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Trading at 0.91x book value (P/B) - 9% discount to tangible equity of 1.09B despite positive TTM net income of 61.2M[Price to Book Ratio]
- Dividend yield of 18% (1.44/share TTM) exceeds EPS of 0.52 by 177% - payout ratio 277% unsustainable without capital raises[Dividends Paid Per Share TTM]
- Interest expense of 275.9M TTM is 344x total revenue of 80.2M - extreme leverage sensitivity to rate movements[Interest Expense TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Dividends Paid Per Share TTM: Reduction below $1.20/share annualized — Dividend cut would signal management acknowledging unsustainable payout; likely 20%+ price drop
- Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 300M or rises >10% QoQ — Spread compression accelerating; net income goes negative quickly given 344x revenue ratio
- Price to Book Ratio: Falls below 0.75x — Signals market pricing permanent capital impairment or forced liquidation risk
Bull Case
9% discount to book (P/B 0.91) with 89.7M FCF TTM provides margin of safety if rates stabilize and spread compression reverses
Price to Book RatioFree Cash Flow TTM
EPS growth of 121% 1Y shows earnings recovery potential; net margin 76% TTM vs industry median 15% demonstrates spread capture
EPS Growth 1YNet Margin TTM
Bear Case
Interest expense 275.9M dwarfs revenue 80.2M - any rate spike destroys economics; 8.1B liabilities vs 1.1B equity = 7.4x leverage
Interest Expense TTMTotal Liabilities
Dividend of 1.44/share requires 152M+ annual equity issuance to fund - 5Y EPS CAGR of -24% shows dilution destroying value
Dividends Paid Per Share TTMEPS Growth 5Y
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
30%
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Forward Thesis
Dividend likely to be cut 30-50% within 12 months as capital raise dilution becomes untenable
3-12mhigh
- Payout ratio 277% vs EPS requires constant equity issuance
- 152.3M stock issuance TTM dilutes existing shareholders
- 5Y EPS CAGR of -24% shows structural earnings decline
Dividend 1.44 vs EPS 0.52 TTM5Y avg payout ratio 107%Stock issuance 152.3M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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ORC Fundamentals
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing → Real Estate
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$1.14B | — | ||
$552.07M | — | ||
16 | — | ||
$80.19M | +5.9% | — | |
$0.52 | -57.4% | — | |
0% | — | ||
76.3% | -2.0% | — | |
$89.71M | +936.6% | — | |
0.07 | -3.5% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
ORC Dividend History
154 dividends
2026
$0.120001/30/26$0.1200
2025
$1.440012/31/25$0.1200
11/28/25$0.1200
10/31/25$0.1200
09/30/25$0.1200
08/29/25$0.1200
07/31/25$0.1200
06/30/25$0.1200
05/30/25$0.1200
04/30/25$0.1200
03/31/25$0.1200
02/28/25$0.1200
01/31/25$0.1200
2024
$1.440012/31/24$0.1200
11/29/24$0.1200
10/31/24$0.1200
09/30/24$0.1200
08/30/24$0.1200
07/31/24$0.1200
06/28/24$0.1200
05/31/24$0.1200
04/29/24$0.1200
03/27/24$0.1200
02/28/24$0.1200
01/30/24$0.1200
2023
$1.800012/28/23$0.1200
11/29/23$0.1200
10/30/23$0.1200
09/28/23$0.1600
08/30/23$0.1600
07/28/23$0.1600
06/29/23$0.1600
05/30/23$0.1600
04/27/23$0.1600
03/30/23$0.1600
02/27/23$0.1600
01/30/23$0.1600
2022
$2.475012/29/22$0.1600
11/29/22$0.1600
10/28/22$0.1600
09/29/22$0.1600
08/30/22$0.1600
07/28/22$0.2250
06/29/22$0.2250
05/27/22$0.2250
04/28/22$0.2250
03/30/22$0.2250
02/25/22$0.2750
01/28/22$0.2750
2021
$3.900012/30/21$0.3250
11/29/21$0.3250
10/28/21$0.3250
09/29/21$0.3250
08/30/21$0.3250
07/29/21$0.3250
06/29/21$0.3250
05/27/21$0.3250
04/29/21$0.3250
03/30/21$0.3250
02/25/21$0.3250
01/28/21$0.3250
2020
$3.950012/30/20$0.3250
11/27/20$0.3250
10/29/20$0.3250
09/29/20$0.3250
08/28/20$0.3250
07/30/20$0.3000
06/29/20$0.2750
05/28/20$0.2750
04/29/20$0.2750
03/30/20$0.4000
02/27/20$0.4000
01/30/20$0.4000
2019
$4.800012/30/19$0.4000
11/27/19$0.4000
10/30/19$0.4000
09/27/19$0.4000
08/29/19$0.4000
07/30/19$0.4000
06/27/19$0.4000
05/30/19$0.4000
04/29/19$0.4000
03/28/19$0.4000
02/27/19$0.4000
01/30/19$0.4000
2018
$4.800012/28/18$0.4000
11/29/18$0.4000
10/30/18$0.4000
09/27/18$0.4000
08/30/18$0.4000
07/30/18$0.4500
06/28/18$0.4500
05/30/18$0.4500
04/27/18$0.4500
03/28/18$0.4500
01/30/18$0.5500
2017
$8.400012/28/17$0.7000
11/29/17$0.7000
10/30/17$0.7000
09/28/17$0.7000
08/29/17$0.7000
07/27/17$0.7000
06/28/17$0.7000
05/26/17$0.7000
04/26/17$0.7000
03/29/17$0.7000
02/24/17$0.7000
01/27/17$0.7000
2016
$8.400012/28/16$0.7000
11/28/16$0.7000
10/25/16$0.7000
09/26/16$0.7000
08/25/16$0.7000
07/25/16$0.7000
06/24/16$0.7000
05/24/16$0.7000
04/22/16$0.7000
03/23/16$0.7000
02/22/16$0.7000
01/22/16$0.7000
2015
$9.600012/22/15$0.7000
11/20/15$0.7000
10/22/15$0.7000
09/23/15$0.7000
08/24/15$0.7000
07/23/15$0.7000
06/18/15$0.9000
05/21/15$0.9000
04/23/15$0.9000
03/25/15$0.9000
02/23/15$0.9000
01/22/15$0.9000
2014
$10.800012/23/14$0.9000
11/21/14$0.9000
10/24/14$0.9000
09/23/14$0.9000
08/22/14$0.9000
07/24/14$0.9000
06/23/14$0.9000
05/22/14$0.9000
04/23/14$0.9000
03/24/14$0.9000
02/21/14$0.9000
01/23/14$0.9000
2013
$6.975012/23/13$0.9000
11/21/13$0.6750
10/23/13$0.6750
09/23/13$0.6750
08/22/13$0.6750
07/23/13$0.6750
06/21/13$0.6750
05/23/13$0.6750
04/23/13$0.6750
03/21/13$0.6750
ORC Stock Splits
1 stock split
08/31/225:1 split
ORC SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
10/24/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/25/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
04/25/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/21/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
10/25/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
07/26/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
04/26/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/23/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
10/27/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
07/28/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
04/28/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/03/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
10/28/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/05/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
04/29/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/25/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/29/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
07/30/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
04/30/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/26/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/30/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/31/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/01/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/21/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/25/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
07/26/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
04/26/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/22/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
10/26/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/27/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
04/27/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/15/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
10/27/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/01/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
04/28/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/17/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/01/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
07/28/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
04/28/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/25/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
10/30/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
07/30/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
04/28/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/24/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
10/28/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
07/31/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/06/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/21/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/04/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/07/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/10/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
03/22/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/28/12 | 09/30/12 | S-11/A | |
10/22/12 | 06/30/12 | S-11 | |
05/10/13 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
10/22/12 | 12/31/11 | S-11 | |
11/28/12 | 09/30/11 | S-11/A | |
10/22/12 | 06/30/11 | S-11 | |
06/24/11 | 03/31/11 | S-11/A |