OR

Oracle Corp

ORCL
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Oracle Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 62.2B is 258% of equity (24.2B) - tangible book value is negative 42.2B, creating material impairment risk[Goodwill]
  • FCF TTM is -5.9B despite 21.5B operating cash flow - capex of 27.4B (46% of revenue) signals massive infrastructure buildout[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Debt/equity of 4.4x with 105B total debt vs 24B equity - interest expense of 3.7B consumes 20% of operating income[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Decline below 15B while revenue grows >10%Signals cloud buildout completion and FCF inflection point
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 4.5B or >25% of operating incomeDebt servicing consuming operating leverage gains
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 25%Would indicate cloud pricing pressure or cost overruns

Bull Case

Operating margin of 31.6% TTM vs industry median of 0% demonstrates pricing power and scale advantages that persist through investment cycle

Operating Margin TTMGross Margin TTM

ROE of 71% and ROIC of 11% despite heavy capex shows core business generates exceptional returns on deployed capital

ROE TTMROIC TTM

Bear Case

4.4x debt/equity with 105B debt and negative tangible equity creates refinancing risk if rates stay elevated or cloud bet underperforms

Debt to EquityTotal DebtTangible Book Value

P/E of 47x vs industry median 30x prices in flawless execution on cloud transition with no margin for error

PE RatioPS Ratio

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Cloud infrastructure investment cycle will compress margins before potential FCF inflection in 2-3 years

1-3ymed
  • Capex at 27.4B TTM (46% of revenue) vs historical ~5%
  • PPE tripled to 53.2B indicating data center buildout
  • Operating margin 31.6% still strong despite investment
FCF swing from positive to -5.9B TTMOperating cash flow 21.5B remains robustR&D at 10B (17% of revenue) sustained
Valuation Context
Caveats

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