OR

Old Republic International Corp

ORI
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Old Republic International Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • FCF TTM of 1.3B equals 100% of operating cash flow - zero capex business model generates pure cash[Free Cash Flow]
  • Receivables of 9.8B represent 112% of revenue TTM - typical for insurance float but concentration risk[Accounts Receivable]
  • EPS down 16% YoY despite 4.4% 5Y revenue CAGR - margin compression underway[EPS Growth 1Y]

Watch Triggers

  • EPS Growth 1Y: Negative growth persists >2 consecutive quartersWould signal structural margin issue vs cyclical; dividend at risk if EPS falls below 2.50
  • Net Margin: Falls below 8% TTMCurrently 9.5% vs 10.9% median; further compression invalidates quality thesis
  • Dividend Payout Ratio: Exceeds 50% for 2+ quarters37.5% 7Y avg provides cushion; breach signals dividend cut risk

Bull Case

Zero-capex FCF machine: 1.3B FCF on 8.7B revenue (14.8% yield) with debt/equity of just 0.25 enables consistent capital returns

Free Cash FlowDebt to Equity

Trading at 1.8x book vs tangible equity of 6.4B - no goodwill impairment risk, clean balance sheet

P/B RatioTangible Book Value

Bear Case

EPS declining 16% YoY while 5Y EPS CAGR only 6% - recent earnings power deteriorating faster than long-term trend

EPS Growth 1YEPS Growth 5Y

ROE 13% and ROIC 10% lag industry medians of 14.5% and 6.3% respectively - capital efficiency middling

ROEROIC

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Dividend sustainability at risk if EPS decline continues beyond cyclical normalization

1-3ymed
  • 37.5% 7Y avg payout ratio leaves buffer but EPS fell 16% YoY
  • FCF of 1.3B covers 284M dividends+buybacks 4.5x currently
  • Insurance cycle turning could compress underwriting margins further
Dividend paid 70.9M vs FCF 1.3B TTMEPS 3.34 TTM vs prior year implied 3.97Net margin 9.5% vs industry median 10.9%
Valuation Context
Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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