OX

Oxford Industries Inc

OXM
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Oxford Industries Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • Capex of 135M TTM (9% of revenue) vs industry median 2.5% - heavy investment cycle consuming 89% of operating cash flow[Capital Expenditure TTM]
  • EPS down 31.5% over 3Y while revenue grew 16% over 5Y - margin compression despite topline growth[EPS Growth 3Y]
  • Gross margin 62.3% vs industry median 50.8% - premium brand pricing power intact despite earnings pressure[Gross Margin TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Drops below 75M (5% of revenue)Signals capex cycle ending, FCF could triple to 75M+
  • Operating Margin TTM: Recovers above 8%Current 5.1% is half historical norms - recovery validates thesis
  • Inventory: Rises above 200M or turns slow below 3x167M inventory at premium brands risks markdowns if stale

Bull Case

Premium brand portfolio (Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer) commands 62% gross margin vs 51% industry - pricing power enables margin recovery once capex normalizes

Gross Margin TTMOperating Margin TTM

P/E of 10.9x vs industry 13.5x and P/S of 0.40x vs 0.65x median prices in permanent margin decline - any stabilization reprices stock

P/E RatioP/S Ratio

Bear Case

EPS declined 31.5% over 3Y while industry median down only 2% - company-specific execution issues, not macro

EPS Growth 3YOperating Margin TTM

Debt/equity 0.86x with only 6.9M cash and 513M total debt - limited flexibility if consumer weakens further

Debt to EquityCash and Equivalents

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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40%

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Forward Thesis

Capex cycle peak suggests FCF inflection as store buildout matures over next 12-18 months

1-3ymed
  • Capex at 9% of revenue vs 2.5% industry norm
  • PPE of 675M (51% of assets) indicates buildout
  • Operating cash flow of 152M proves core profitability
FCF only 16.5M TTM vs 152M operating CFCapex 135M TTM is 3.7x industry medianGross margin 62% provides cushion
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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