OX

Oxford Square Capital Corp

OXSQ
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Oxford Square Capital Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • Interest expense TTM (8.4M) is 4.6x total revenue (1.8M) - debt servicing vastly exceeds income generation, structurally unprofitable[Interest Expense TTM]
  • Trading at 0.93x book value (P/B) with negative ROE (-1.6% TTM) - discount reflects capital destruction, not opportunity[Price to Book Ratio]
  • FCF of -21.8M TTM while paying 8.1M dividends - distributions funded by equity issuance (12M raised), not operations[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Income: Falls below 4M quarterlyPortfolio yield compression would accelerate losses; currently 5.2M barely offsets 8.4M interest expense
  • Dividends Paid Per Share TTM: Cut below 0.30/share annualizedDividend cut would signal management acknowledges unsustainability, likely triggering 20%+ selloff
  • Net Common Stock Issuance: Exceeds 15M in any quarterAccelerating dilution to fund operations indicates deteriorating credit portfolio

Bull Case

P/B of 0.93x offers potential upside if credit portfolio stabilizes - tangible book of 159M vs 148M market cap

Price to Book RatioTangible Book Value

Cash position doubled to 50.8M (16% of assets) provides liquidity buffer amid portfolio stress

Cash and EquivalentsEnd Cash Position

Bear Case

Debt/equity 0.95x with interest expense (8.4M) consuming 463% of revenue - leverage is existential risk

Debt to EquityInterest Expense TTM

All return metrics negative (ROE -1.6%, ROA -0.8%, ROIC -0.9%) vs positive industry medians - destroying capital

ROE TTMROA TTMROIC TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Dividend likely unsustainable without continued equity dilution or asset sales

3-12mhigh
  • FCF -21.8M cannot cover 8.1M dividend
  • Net income -2.6M TTM with negative margin
  • 12M equity issuance in period to fund gap
Dividend yield 0.42/share vs EPS -0.03Interest expense 4.6x revenueROE -1.6%, ROIC -0.9% TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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