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Plains All American Pipeline LP

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Plains All American Pipeline LP AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • Asset turnover TTM of 1.7x vs industry median 0.3x - 5.7x more capital efficient, driving 11% ROE despite thin 2.3% net margin.[Asset Turnover]
  • FCF TTM of 2.1B covers 1.46/unit distribution 1.4x over, with debt/equity at 0.99 - sustainable payout without leverage strain.[Free Cash Flow]
  • Gross profit 1Y growth of 68% vs revenue 5Y CAGR of 15% signals margin expansion from higher-value throughput or cost discipline.[Gross Profit 1Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin: Falls below 3.5% TTMAlready razor-thin at 4% - further compression signals volume/pricing pressure or cost inflation.
  • Interest Expense: Exceeds 550M annuallyWould pressure distribution coverage; current 5.9x EBITDA/interest could fall below 5x.
  • Capital Expenditure: Rises above 900M TTMSignals growth capex resumption, reducing FCF available for distributions.

Bull Case

PCF ratio of 4.3x vs industry median 8.2x - trading at 48% discount to peers on cash flow basis despite superior asset turnover.

PCF RatioAsset Turnover

Distribution yield of ~11.7% (1.46/unit on ~12.4B market cap) covered by FCF with room for growth as capex moderates.

Dividends Paid Per ShareFree Cash Flow

Bear Case

Gross margin TTM of 4.0% vs industry median 33% - commodity pass-through model leaves minimal buffer for volume or price shocks.

Gross MarginOperating Margin

Net debt of 8.3B at 2.8x EBITDA with 507M interest expense TTM - rate sensitivity material if refinancing at higher spreads.

Net DebtInterest Expense

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF yield compression as Permian volumes peak and capex normalizes below 800M annually.

1-3ymed
  • Capex TTM at 772M vs industry median 281M - elevated but declining
  • EBITDA coverage of interest at 5.9x provides refinancing flexibility
  • Working capital positive 218M despite high-volume commodity pass-through
FCF margin 4.5% on 46.9B revenue TTMPCF ratio 4.3x vs industry 8.2x medianEPS growth 1Y at 418% (low base effect)
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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