PE

Pegasystems Inc

PEGA
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Pegasystems Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-11

Snapshot

  • ROIC of 32.1% TTM vs industry median 0.3% - 100x capital efficiency advantage funds 18% R&D intensity without debt[Return on Invested Capital]
  • FCF of 431M TTM (25% margin) on just 11M capex - near-zero capital intensity enables 99% cash conversion[Free Cash Flow]
  • Debt/equity 0.13 with 149M cash vs 77M total debt - net cash position despite 11.3B market cap[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 15% TTMMargin compression would signal pricing pressure or cost discipline breakdown in competitive CRM/BPM market
  • Free Cash Flow: FCF margin drops below 20%Cash conversion is core thesis - deterioration signals working capital issues or hidden capex needs
  • Total Revenue 3Y Growth: Decelerates below 8%At 39x P/E, growth slowdown would trigger multiple compression toward industry median

Bull Case

ROE 52% TTM with 0.13 debt/equity - exceptional returns without leverage. Industry median ROE 0.4% makes PEGA a 130x outlier on capital efficiency.

ROEDebt to EquityROIC

FCF yield 3.8% (431M/11.3B) with 99% conversion from operating cash flow. Minimal reinvestment needs fund buybacks or M&A optionality.

Free Cash FlowCapital ExpenditureCash Flow

Bear Case

P/E 39x vs industry median 25x and P/S 6.5x vs 2.3x median - 55-185% premium requires sustained execution with no margin for error.

P/E RatioP/S RatioP/B Ratio

Revenue 3Y CAGR 12% matches industry median 6% but doesn't justify premium multiple. Growth deceleration would compress valuation rapidly.

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthTotal Revenue

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Operating leverage to expand margins as subscription mix matures beyond 17.5% operating margin TTM

1-3ymed
  • Gross margin 75.7% provides expansion runway
  • R&D 308M (18% of rev) can scale sub-linearly
  • Near-zero capex preserves FCF conversion
Operating margin 17.5% vs 2.5% industry medianFCF margin 25% already exceeds net margin 16%Revenue 3Y CAGR 12% supports scale benefits
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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