PF

Pfizer Inc

PFE
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Pfizer Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 69.1B is 74% of equity (92.8B) - Seagen acquisition creates material impairment risk if oncology pipeline underperforms[Goodwill]
  • Tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-27.6B) - equity entirely dependent on intangible assets and goodwill valuations[Tangible Book Value]
  • R&D spend of 11.8B TTM (19% of revenue) vs industry median 37.6M - massive pipeline investment dwarfs peers[Research and Development]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 8B annuallyWould force dividend cut or debt increase - current 10.4B barely covers 9.8B dividend
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge announced69B goodwill is 74% of equity - even 10% writedown wipes 7B from book value
  • Operating Margin TTM: Drops below 20%Current 24.6% margin supports debt servicing - compression signals pricing pressure

Bull Case

PE of 11.2x vs industry median 20.2x - 45% discount prices in significant pessimism despite 62.8B revenue base and 24.6% operating margins

PE RatioOperating Margin TTMTotal Revenue TTM

FCF of 10.4B TTM (16.5% margin) supports 7.4% dividend yield while funding R&D - rare income + optionality combination

Free Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTMResearch and Development

Bear Case

Total debt 60.8B with negative tangible book (-27.6B) creates refinancing risk if rates stay elevated and pipeline disappoints

Total DebtTangible Book ValueInterest Expense

ROIC of 6.3% TTM on 153.6B invested capital - destroying value if WACC exceeds returns, goodwill impairment risk material

ROIC TTMInvested CapitalGoodwill

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation will compress as COVID revenue normalizes but debt servicing remains elevated

1-3yhigh
  • Interest expense 2.7B TTM on 60.8B debt
  • Net debt 59.5B vs 10.4B FCF = 5.7x coverage
  • Dividend commitment 1.71/share = ~9.8B annually
Debt/equity 0.66 with negative tangible bookFCF 10.4B barely covers dividend + interestOperating CF 4.6B quarterly run-rate declining

Oncology portfolio from Seagen must deliver to justify 69B goodwill and restore growth

3-5ymed
  • 120B intangibles = 58% of total assets
  • Operating margin 24.6% needs pipeline success
  • ROIC 6.3% TTM below cost of capital
R&D 11.8B annually for pipeline advancementPE 11.2x implies low growth expectationsIndustry median PE 20.2x shows discount
Valuation Context
Caveats

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