PG
Progressive Corp
PGR—
Progressive Corp AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- EPS 3Y CAGR of 181% vs industry median 9% - exceptional underwriting cycle execution driving massive earnings expansion[EPS Growth 3Y]
- ROE TTM 34.2% vs industry median 14.5% - 2.4x superior capital efficiency despite conservative 0.19 debt/equity[ROE]
- FCF TTM 17.0B (20% of revenue) with capex only 337M - insurance float generates cash without reinvestment needs[Free Cash Flow]
Watch Triggers
- Net Margin: Falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters — Signals underwriting cycle turning; current 12.6% is above industry median 10.9%
- Total Revenue 3Y Growth: Decelerates below 15% — Market share gains slowing would challenge premium valuation multiple
- ROE: Drops below 25% — Would indicate competitive pressure eroding capital efficiency advantage
Bull Case
Scale + data moat: 85B revenue (20x industry median) funds telematics/AI investments competitors can't match, driving persistent market share gains in personal auto
Total Revenue TTMROEROIC
Capital-light compounder: 17B FCF on 337M capex (50:1 ratio) enables dividends, buybacks, or opportunistic M&A without leverage
Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMDebt to Equity
Bear Case
Cycle risk: 181% EPS growth reflects peak underwriting margins; soft market could compress ROE toward industry median 14.5%
EPS Growth 3YROENet Margin
Valuation reflects perfection: P/B 3.9x vs book value 60.26 prices in continued outperformance with limited margin of safety
P/B RatioBook Value Per ShareP/E Ratio
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
65%
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Forward Thesis
Earnings power sustainable at 28%+ ROIC as hard market pricing persists through 2026
1-3yhigh
- Industry capacity discipline post-2022 losses
- Telematics data advantage widens vs legacy insurers
- Rate increases sticky in personal auto
ROIC TTM 28% vs industry 6.3% medianRevenue 3Y CAGR 21% vs industry 9%Net margin 12.6% vs industry 10.9%
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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PGR Fundamentals
Finance and Insurance → Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$119.03B | — | ||
$125.76B | — | ||
11 | — | ||
$85.17B | +18.4% | — | |
$18.22 | +32.4% | — | |
0% | — | ||
12.6% | +1.3% | — | |
$17.05B | +19.3% | — | |
0.34 | -2.6% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
PGR Dividend History
71 dividends
2026
$13.600001/02/26$13.6000
2025
$4.900010/02/25$0.1000
07/03/25$0.1000
04/03/25$0.1000
01/10/25$4.6000
2024
$1.150010/03/24$0.1000
07/03/24$0.1000
04/03/24$0.1000
01/18/24$0.8500
2023
$0.400010/04/23$0.1000
07/06/23$0.1000
04/05/23$0.1000
01/05/23$0.1000
2022
$0.400010/06/22$0.1000
07/06/22$0.1000
04/06/22$0.1000
01/06/22$0.1000
2021
$6.400012/17/21$1.5000
10/06/21$0.1000
07/06/21$0.1000
04/06/21$0.1000
01/07/21$4.6000
2020
$0.400010/06/20$0.1000
07/06/20$0.1000
04/06/20$0.1000
01/07/20$0.1000
2019
$2.814010/04/19$0.1000
07/03/19$0.1000
04/04/19$0.1000
02/01/19$2.5140
2018
$1.124702/01/18$1.1247
2017
$0.681002/01/17$0.6810
2016
$0.888202/01/16$0.8882
2015
$0.686002/02/15$0.6860
2014
$1.492901/27/14$1.4929
2013
$0.258601/23/13$0.2586
2012
$1.279311/19/12$0.9091
01/24/12$0.3702
2011
$0.362501/25/11$0.3625
2010
$1.055712/16/10$0.9091
01/25/10$0.1466
2008
$0.131801/17/08$0.1318
2007
$1.818208/29/07$1.8182
2006
$0.029612/06/06$0.0080
09/06/06$0.0080
06/07/06$0.0068
03/08/06$0.0068
2005
$0.027312/07/05$0.0068
09/07/05$0.0068
06/08/05$0.0068
03/09/05$0.0068
2004
$0.025112/08/04$0.0068
09/08/04$0.0068
06/09/04$0.0057
03/10/04$0.0057
2003
$0.022912/10/03$0.0057
09/10/03$0.0057
06/11/03$0.0057
03/12/03$0.0057
2002
$0.022012/11/02$0.0057
09/11/02$0.0057
06/12/02$0.0053
03/06/02$0.0053
2001
$0.021112/12/01$0.0053
09/12/01$0.0053
06/06/01$0.0053
03/07/01$0.0053
2000
$0.020412/06/00$0.0053
09/06/00$0.0053
06/07/00$0.0049
03/08/00$0.0049
PGR Stock Splits
3 stock splits
01/27/141:1.1 split
05/19/060.25:1 split
04/23/021:3 split
PGR SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
11/03/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/04/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/05/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/03/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/04/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/05/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/06/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/26/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
10/31/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/01/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/02/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/27/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/01/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/02/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/02/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/28/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/02/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/03/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/04/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
03/01/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/03/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/04/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/05/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
03/02/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/06/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/07/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/01/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/27/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
10/31/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/31/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/02/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/27/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/02/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/02/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/03/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
03/01/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/03/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/03/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/05/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/29/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/05/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
08/05/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
05/11/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
03/02/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
10/29/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
07/30/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/12/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/26/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/12/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/06/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/02/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/26/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/01/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/02/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/07/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
02/28/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/07/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/09/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
05/09/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
03/01/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
11/08/10 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
08/05/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
05/10/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
03/01/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
11/09/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
08/10/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
05/11/09 | 03/31/09 | 10-Q | |
02/25/09 | 12/31/08 | 10-K | |
11/10/08 | 09/30/08 | 10-Q | |
08/07/08 | 06/30/08 | 10-Q | |
05/06/08 | 03/31/08 | 10-Q | |
02/27/08 | 12/31/07 | 10-K | |
11/01/07 | 09/30/07 | 10-Q | |
08/02/07 | 06/30/07 | 10-Q | |
05/03/07 | 03/31/07 | 10-Q | |
02/28/07 | 12/31/06 | 10-K | |
11/02/06 | 09/30/06 | 10-Q | |
08/03/06 | 06/30/06 | 10-Q | |
05/04/06 | 03/31/06 | 10-Q | |
02/28/06 | 12/31/05 | 10-K | |
11/08/05 | 09/30/05 | 10-Q | |
08/08/05 | 06/30/05 | 10-Q | |
05/09/05 | 03/31/05 | 10-Q | |
03/01/05 | 12/31/04 | 10-K | |
11/09/04 | 09/30/04 | 10-Q | |
08/09/04 | 06/30/04 | 10-Q | |
05/10/04 | 03/31/04 | 10-Q | |
03/04/04 | 12/31/03 | 10-K | |
11/12/03 | 09/30/03 | 10-Q | |
08/14/03 | 06/30/03 | 10-Q | |
05/12/03 | 03/31/03 | 10-Q | |
03/14/03 | 12/31/02 | 10-K | |
11/01/02 | 09/30/02 | 10-Q | |
08/13/02 | 06/30/02 | 10-Q | |
05/14/02 | 03/31/02 | 10-Q | |
03/28/02 | 12/31/01 | 10-K405 | |
11/05/01 | 09/30/01 | 10-Q | |
08/13/01 | 06/30/01 | 10-Q | |
05/14/01 | 03/31/01 | 10-Q | |
03/29/01 | 12/31/00 | 10-K | |
11/13/00 | 09/30/00 | 10-Q | |
08/14/00 | 06/30/00 | 10-Q | |
05/11/00 | 03/31/00 | 10-Q |