QV

QVC Group Inc

QVCGA
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QVC Group Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-11

Snapshot

  • Negative equity of -3.1B with 6.5B debt creates 68x debt-to-enterprise value ratio - technically insolvent balance sheet[Total Equity]
  • Revenue declining -5.6% TTM and -6.9% 3Y CAGR while industry median grows 3.4% - structural decline evident[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]
  • Market cap of 95M vs 4.8B EV - equity is a call option on 6.5B debt restructuring[Market Cap TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive >100MOnly path to avoiding restructuring - current -26M unsustainable
  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Stabilizes above -3%Revenue stabilization required before any debt refinancing possible
  • Interest Expense: Rises above 500M or debt covenant breachTriggers acceleration of restructuring timeline

Bull Case

Trading at 0.01x P/S vs industry median 1.4x - any stabilization creates massive equity upside from near-zero base

PS RatioMarket Cap TTM

Gross margin 34% and 460M operating income TTM shows core business still generates cash before debt service

Gross Margin TTMOperating Income TTM

Bear Case

Interest expense 478M exceeds operating income 460M - company cannot service debt from operations

Interest ExpenseOperating Income TTM

5-year revenue CAGR of -8% with accelerating decline suggests terminal business model in e-commerce era

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthTotal Revenue 1Y Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
20%

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Forward Thesis

Debt restructuring or bankruptcy filing likely within 12-24 months without dramatic operational turnaround

1-3yhigh
  • Interest expense 478M TTM exceeds operating income 460M
  • FCF negative -26M cannot service 6.5B debt load
  • Revenue declining 7% annually accelerates cash burn
Net debt 4.1B vs negative equity -3.1BOperating margin 4.8% vs interest burden 5%975M new debt issuance signals refinancing stress
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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