RE

Riley Exploration Permian Inc

REPX
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Riley Exploration Permian Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 39.5% TTM vs industry median 18% - 2.2x advantage from low-cost Permian basin operations[Operating Margin]
  • 5Y revenue CAGR 168.5% vs industry median 15% - aggressive M&A-driven growth (126M acquisition TTM)[Total Revenue 5Y Growth]
  • P/E 6.2x vs industry median 11.7x at 0.53x discount despite superior margins and 34% dividend yield[P/E Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 80M (dividend coverage <2.5x)Signals dividend cut risk or forced capex reduction
  • Operating Margin TTM: Drops below 30%Would indicate cost inflation or pricing pressure eroding core advantage
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 0.8xFurther leverage would stress balance sheet given commodity volatility

Bull Case

Best-in-class margins (39.5% operating) at deep value (6.2x P/E) with 34% dividend yield provides downside protection and income

Operating Margin TTMP/E RatioDividends Paid Per Share TTM

ROE 16.1% and ROIC 9.9% TTM exceed industry medians (7.8%, 5.4%) indicating efficient capital deployment in Permian

ROE TTMROIC TTM

Bear Case

Negative working capital (-48M) and minimal cash (16M) vs 20M current debt creates liquidity risk in downturn

Working CapitalCash and EquivalentsCurrent Debt

Commodity price exposure with 375M total debt (0.66x D/E) limits flexibility; interest 28M consumes 25% of net income

Total DebtDebt to EquityInterest Expense TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF yield compression as capex normalizes post-acquisition cycle

1-3ymed
  • Capex 112M TTM (28% of revenue) vs 26% FCF margin
  • 126M acquisition in TTM period signals integration phase
  • Interest expense 28M on 375M debt constrains flexibility
FCF 102M TTM, down from operating cash 214MDebt/equity 0.66x manageable but risingWorking capital negative 48M limits buffer

Dividend sustainability at risk if oil prices decline materially

3-12mmed
  • 1.52/share dividend = 32M annual outflow
  • FCF 102M covers dividend 3.2x currently
  • No equity issuance indicates reliance on operations
Net margin 21.7% TTM commodity-sensitiveCash only 16M vs 20M current debtInterest coverage 5x (EBIT/interest)
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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