RL

RLX Technology Inc

RLX
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RLX Technology Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • Cash of 8.5B exceeds market cap of 3.0B by 2.8x - trading below net cash value with negative EV (-299M TTM)[Cash and Short-term Investments]
  • Revenue TTM grew 52% while 3Y CAGR is -0.3% - sharp recovery from multi-year decline, sustainability uncertain[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]
  • Net margin 23.4% vs operating margin 6.1% TTM - 140M interest income inflates profitability, core ops weaker[Net Margin]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Falls below 10%Would confirm 52% growth was one-time recovery, not sustainable trend
  • Dividends Paid Per Share: Increases >50% or special dividend announcedSignals management commitment to returning excess cash, catalyst for re-rating
  • Operating Margin: Expands above 10%Core business profitability improving vs reliance on interest income

Bull Case

Trading at 0.2x book value with 8.5B cash vs 3.0B market cap - buying $2.80 of cash for $1.00 plus operating business generating 1.3B FCF TTM

P/B RatioCash and Short-term InvestmentsFree Cash Flow

52% revenue growth TTM with 39% FCF margin shows operational leverage; if growth sustains, multiple re-rating likely

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthFree Cash Flow

Bear Case

China regulatory risk on vaping industry; 3Y revenue CAGR of -0.3% suggests 52% TTM growth may be unsustainable rebound

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthTotal Revenue 1Y Growth

ROE of 4.8% and ROIC of 4.8% TTM - massive cash pile earning sub-2% drags returns; value trap if capital stays idle

ROEROICInterest Income

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Cash deployment decision will determine if value gap closes or persists

1-3ymed
  • 8.5B cash earning 140M interest (1.7% yield)
  • Dividend yield ~4.8% signals some capital return
  • No M&A or buyback acceleration visible
Cash 8.5B vs market cap 3.0BDividends paid 0.14/share TTMDebt/equity 0.01 - no leverage needed
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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