RY

Ryanair Holdings PLC

RYAAY
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Ryanair Holdings PLC AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-06

Snapshot

  • Negative working capital of -1.9B TTM - customers prepay before flights, funding operations interest-free[Working Capital]
  • ROIC of 22.5% TTM on 10.3B invested capital with only 0.16 debt/equity - exceptional capital efficiency[Return on Invested Capital]
  • EPS growth 24.8% 1Y vs revenue growth 8.2% - operating leverage converting modest top-line to earnings[EPS Growth 1Y]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 12%Cost advantage thesis invalidated - signals fuel hedging failure or pricing pressure
  • Working Capital: Turns positiveWould indicate booking pattern shift or refund obligations eroding float advantage
  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Exceeds 2.5BFleet expansion acceleration would pressure FCF and signal capacity discipline breakdown

Bull Case

Operating margin 15.9% TTM with 22.5% ROIC demonstrates structural cost advantage in commoditized industry - scale benefits compound as competitors exit

Operating Margin TTMROIC TTMAsset Turnover TTM

P/E 15.8x with 24.8% EPS growth 1Y and 18.1% 3Y CAGR - growth at reasonable price with balance sheet optionality

P/E RatioEPS Growth 1YEPS Growth 3Y

Bear Case

PPE of 11.2B (69% of assets) creates high operating leverage - fuel spikes or demand shocks hit margins hard

PPETotal AssetsOperating Margin TTM

Revenue growth slowing (8.2% 1Y vs 10.9% 3Y CAGR) - European market saturation may cap expansion runway

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthTotal Revenue 3Y Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
62%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation to accelerate as fleet capex cycle matures and negative WC compounds

1-3ymed
  • 2.2B FCF TTM on 1.8B capex suggests fleet investment peaking
  • Negative WC grows with passenger volume
  • Low debt (1.5B) leaves capacity for opportunistic M&A
FCF margin 14.8% TTMCapex/revenue 11.8% TTMCash 3.0B vs total debt 1.5B
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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