XCF Global Inc
SAFX
XCF Global Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Gross margin -21.6% TTM (cost exceeds revenue by 3.5M) - core business model is cash-destructive at current scale.[Gross Margin]
- Debt/equity 25.7x with 129M current debt vs 0.9M cash - severe liquidity crisis, equity nearly wiped out.[Debt to Equity]
- Net income 83M TTM despite -40M operating loss driven by 1.6M gain on security sales - non-recurring, unsustainable.[Net Income]
Watch Triggers
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 500K or debt covenant breach disclosed — At 0.9M with -2.4M quarterly burn, runway is weeks not months
- Gross Margin: Remains negative for another quarter — Confirms business model fundamentally broken at unit economics level
- Current Debt: Refinancing announcement or default notice — 129M current debt coming due with no visible repayment capacity
Bull Case
PPE of 380M (93% of assets) may hold hidden value if infrastructure assets can be monetized or attract strategic buyer.
Revenue of 16.1M TTM exists - if cost structure fixed, path to breakeven possible with operational turnaround.
Bear Case
Operating margin -248% TTM (vs industry +2% median) - burning 2.50 for every 1.00 of revenue generated.
Equity of 5.2M supports 134M debt - any asset impairment or continued losses triggers technical insolvency.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Balance sheet restructuring or dilutive equity raise required within 12 months to avoid default.
- Current debt 129M vs cash 0.9M
- FCF burn of -19.4M TTM
- Working capital deficit -236M
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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SAFX Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$32.68M | — | ||
$166.07M | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$16.13M | — | ||
$-0.38 | — | ||
-248% | — | ||
515% | — | ||
$-19.35M | — | ||
11 | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
SAFX Dividend History
SAFX Stock Splits
SAFX SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
11/28/25 | 09/30/25 | S-1/A | |
12/03/25 | 09/30/25 | 424B3 | |
11/14/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
10/16/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
10/22/25 | 06/30/25 | S-1 | |
11/28/25 | 12/31/24 | S-1/A | |
12/03/25 | 12/31/24 | 424B3 | |
02/06/25 | 09/30/24 | 424B3 | |
10/31/24 | 06/30/24 | S-4/A | |
07/31/24 | 03/31/24 | S-4 | |
02/06/25 | 12/31/23 | 424B3 | |
02/06/25 | 09/30/23 | 424B3 | |
10/31/24 | 06/30/23 | S-4/A |