SI

Signet Jewelers Ltd

SIG
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Signet Jewelers Ltd AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • EPS growth TTM of 162% vs revenue growth of 1.4% 5Y - margin expansion and buybacks driving earnings leverage, not organic growth.[EPS Growth 1Y]
  • Inventory of 2.1B is 39% of total assets and 9x cash - significant working capital tied up in slow-moving luxury goods.[Inventory]
  • FCF TTM of 591M (8.7% yield on market cap) funds buybacks while debt/equity at 0.67 remains manageable.[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 38%Signals pricing power erosion or promotional intensity that would compress FCF and buyback capacity.
  • Inventory: Rises above 2.3B or inventory days increase >10%Indicates demand weakness requiring markdowns that destroy margins.
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 400MThreatens buyback program that drives EPS growth thesis.

Bull Case

PE of 10.3x vs industry median 14.5x with 8.7% FCF yield - valuation discount despite sector-leading profitability (8% operating margin vs 3.8% median).

PE RatioFree Cash Flow TTMOperating Margin TTM

Payables increased 143M while inventory dropped 119M TTM - working capital optimization releasing cash for shareholder returns.

Change in Account PayableChange in Inventory

Bear Case

Revenue 5Y CAGR of 1.4% in discretionary luxury retail - EPS growth is financial engineering, not fundamental demand growth.

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthEPS Growth 1Y

Goodwill of 428M is 25% of equity and 43% of tangible book - acquisition-driven strategy carries impairment risk in downturn.

GoodwillTangible Book Value

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF-funded buybacks will continue driving EPS growth despite flat revenue environment.

1-3ymed
  • 591M FCF vs 3.4B market cap = 17% buyback capacity
  • Share count reduction accelerating EPS math
  • Stable gross margins near 40%
EPS 8.05 TTM with 162% 1Y growthFCF margin 8.7% sustainableDebt/equity 0.67 allows continued returns
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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