SL

Sylvamo Corp

SLVM
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Sylvamo Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • ROE TTM 18.8% vs industry median 8.9% - 2x capital efficiency advantage despite commodity paper business[Return on Equity]
  • FCF TTM 106M with capex 232M (6.8% of revenue) - heavy reinvestment cycle consuming 69% of operating cash[Free Cash Flow]
  • Revenue down 12.3% YoY vs industry flat (+0.7%) - underperforming sector in cyclical downturn[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Returns to positive or declines below -15%Distinguishes cyclical trough from structural decline
  • Capital Expenditure: Falls below 150M annuallySignals capex cycle completion, FCF inflection point
  • Operating Margin: Expands above 10% or contracts below 6%Validates margin recovery thesis or signals cost pressures

Bull Case

P/E 11.7x vs industry 22.9x with ROE 2x median - deep value if earnings stabilize. Dividend yield 4.1% (1.80/share) provides downside support.

PE RatioROEDividends Paid Per Share

Tangible book 849M vs market cap 2.1B (P/TBV 2.4x) with minimal goodwill (128M, 13% of equity) - clean balance sheet for cyclical.

Tangible Book ValueGoodwillPrice to Book

Bear Case

Revenue -12.3% YoY signals demand destruction, not just cycle. Paper industry faces secular headwinds from digitization.

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthTotal Revenue

Net debt 808M equals 1.7x EBITDA with FCF only 106M - limited flexibility if downturn extends. Capex needs may persist.

Net DebtEBITDAFree Cash Flow

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Margin normalization likely as revenue decline stabilizes and capex cycle completes

1-3ymed
  • Capex 232M TTM vs 156M industry median suggests investment phase
  • Operating margin 8% has room to expand toward 12-15% at cycle peak
  • Debt/equity 0.83x manageable for cyclical recovery
EBITDA margin 13.8% vs normalized EBITDA 148M quarterlyAsset turnover 1.23x vs 0.78x median - efficient baseInterest expense only 11M on 808M debt
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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