What are the investment risks for Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD)?

P/S 2.9x vs industry median 0.9x - trading at 3.2x premium despite modest 4% 3Y revenue CAGR. Valuation assumes growth that hasn't materialized. Goodwill 558M (28% of equity) from acquisitions - integration risk and potential impairment if housing cycle turns.

Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc

SSD

—

Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.

As of 2025-12-31

Snapshot

Operating margin 19.3% TTM vs industry median 7.4% - 2.6x advantage from specialized connector/fastener niche with pricing power.[Operating Margin TTM]
ROIC 14.2% TTM vs industry median -1.8% - capital efficiency in a sector where most peers destroy value.[ROIC TTM]
R&D at 95M (4.1% of revenue TTM) vs median 35M - investing 2.7x peers in product development.[Research and Development TTM]

Watch Triggers

Inventory: Exceeds 650M or >28% of revenue — Current 592M (25% of sales) is elevated; further build signals demand weakness
Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 42% — Margin compression would signal pricing power erosion in core connector business
Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Turns negative for 2 consecutive quarters — Would confirm housing cycle downturn impacting core demand

Bull Case

Dominant niche player with 46% gross margin TTM (1.7x industry) and 14.2% ROIC - structural moat from code-compliant engineered connectors that competitors can't easily replicate.

Gross Margin TTMROIC TTMOperating Margin TTM

Balance sheet fortress: 0.22 debt/equity, 297M cash, 239M FCF TTM - can weather downturn and acquire distressed competitors.

Debt to EquityCash and EquivalentsFree Cash Flow TTM

Bear Case

P/S 2.9x vs industry median 0.9x - trading at 3.2x premium despite modest 4% 3Y revenue CAGR. Valuation assumes growth that hasn't materialized.

P/S RatioTotal Revenue 3Y Growth

Goodwill 558M (28% of equity) from acquisitions - integration risk and potential impairment if housing cycle turns.

GoodwillCommon Stockholders Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

55%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion likely as R&D investments (4.1% of sales) convert to higher-value engineered products

1-3ymed

R&D spend 2.7x industry median signals pipeline
Gross margin 46% TTM provides pricing umbrella
Revenue growing 6.2% 1Y while maintaining margins

R&D 95M TTM vs 35M industry medianGross margin 46% vs 26% medianOperating margin stable at 19.3% TTM

Housing cycle sensitivity remains key swing factor for 2025-2026 earnings trajectory

3-12mhigh

Construction fastener demand tied to housing starts
Working capital 946M signals inventory build
Revenue growth slowed to 4% 3Y CAGR from 6% 1Y

Inventory 592M (25% of revenue)3Y revenue CAGR 4% vs 1Y 6.2%Working capital 946M TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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SSD Fundamentals

Manufacturing → Wood Product Manufacturing

Metric	Value	YoY Growth	Industry Percentile
Market Cap	$7.85B		—
Enterprise Value	$7.99B		—
P/E Ratio	24		—
Total Revenue - TTM	$2.31B	+4.3%	—
Earnings Per Share (diluted) - TTM	$8.00	+4.6%	—
Operating Margin - TTM	19.4%	-0.0%	—
Net Margin - TTM	14.9%	+0.4%	—
Free Cash Flow - TTM	$238.91M	+151.4%	—
Return on Common Equity - TTM	0.18	-0.4%	—
Beta 5Y (Monthly)	unknown		—

SSD Dividend History

88 dividends

2026

$0.2900

01/02/26$0.2900

2025

$1.1400

10/02/25$0.2900

07/03/25$0.2900

04/03/25$0.2800

01/02/25$0.2800

2024

$1.1000

10/03/24$0.2800

07/03/24$0.2800

04/03/24$0.2700

01/03/24$0.2700

2023

$1.0600

10/04/23$0.2700

07/05/23$0.2700

04/05/23$0.2600

01/04/23$0.2600

2022

$1.0200

10/05/22$0.2600

07/06/22$0.2600

04/06/22$0.2500

01/05/22$0.2500

2021

$0.9600

10/06/21$0.2500

06/30/21$0.2500

03/31/21$0.2300

01/06/21$0.2300

2020

$0.6900

09/30/20$0.2300

07/01/20$0.2300

04/01/20$0.2300

2019

$1.1300

12/31/19$0.2300

10/02/19$0.2300

07/02/19$0.2300

04/03/19$0.2200

01/02/19$0.2200

2018

$0.8600

10/03/18$0.2200

07/03/18$0.2200

04/04/18$0.2100

01/03/18$0.2100

2017

$0.7800

10/04/17$0.2100

07/03/17$0.2100

04/04/17$0.1800

01/03/17$0.1800

2016

$0.6800

10/04/16$0.1800

07/05/16$0.1800

04/05/16$0.1600

01/05/16$0.1600

2015

$0.6000

09/29/15$0.1600

06/30/15$0.1600

03/31/15$0.1400

01/06/15$0.1400

2014

$0.4050

09/30/14$0.1400

07/01/14$0.1400

04/01/14$0.1250

2013

$0.3750

12/30/13$0.1250

10/01/13$0.1250

07/01/13$0.1250

2012

$0.7500

12/31/12$0.1250

12/19/12$0.1250

10/02/12$0.1250

07/02/12$0.1250

04/03/12$0.1250

01/03/12$0.1250

2011

$0.4750

10/04/11$0.1250

07/05/11$0.1250

04/05/11$0.1250

01/04/11$0.1000

2010

$0.4000

10/05/10$0.1000

07/06/10$0.1000

04/06/10$0.1000

01/05/10$0.1000

2009

$0.4000

09/29/09$0.1000

06/30/09$0.1000

04/01/09$0.1000

01/02/09$0.1000

2008

$0.4000

10/01/08$0.1000

07/01/08$0.1000

04/01/08$0.1000

01/08/08$0.1000

2007

$0.3800

10/02/07$0.1000

07/03/07$0.1000

04/03/07$0.1000

01/03/07$0.0800

2006

$0.3200

10/03/06$0.0800

07/03/06$0.0800

04/04/06$0.0800

01/04/06$0.0800

2005

$0.2000

10/04/05$0.0500

07/05/05$0.0500

04/04/05$0.0500

01/04/05$0.0500

2004

$0.1500

10/04/04$0.0500

07/01/04$0.0500

04/01/04$0.0500

SSD Stock Splits

2 stock splits

11/19/040.5:1 split

08/19/021:2 split

SSD SEC Filings

Filing Date	Report Date	Report Type	Filing Link
11/07/25	09/30/25	10-Q	0001628280-25-050724
08/08/25	06/30/25	10-Q	0000920371-25-000113
05/09/25	03/31/25	10-Q	0000920371-25-000091
03/03/25	12/31/24	Unknown	0000920371-25-000051
11/12/24	09/30/24	10-Q	0000920371-24-000182
08/07/24	06/30/24	10-Q	0000920371-24-000163
05/07/24	03/31/24	10-Q	0000920371-24-000120
02/28/24	12/31/23	10-K	0000920371-24-000063
11/07/23	09/30/23	10-Q	0000920371-23-000180
08/07/23	06/30/23	10-Q	0000920371-23-000154
05/08/23	03/31/23	10-Q	0000920371-23-000122
02/28/23	12/31/22	10-K	0000920371-23-000072
11/08/22	09/30/22	10-Q	0000920371-22-000162
08/10/22	06/30/22	10-Q	0000920371-22-000139
05/06/22	03/31/22	10-Q	0000920371-22-000082
02/28/22	12/31/21	10-K	0000920371-22-000056
11/04/21	09/30/21	10-Q	0000920371-21-000137
08/06/21	06/30/21	10-Q	0000920371-21-000114
05/06/21	03/31/21	10-Q	0000920371-21-000080
02/26/21	12/31/20	10-K	0000920371-21-000042
11/06/20	09/30/20	10-Q	0000920371-20-000142
08/07/20	06/30/20	10-Q	0000920371-20-000113
05/07/20	03/31/20	10-Q	0000920371-20-000091
02/25/20	12/31/19	10-K	0000920371-20-000054
11/06/19	09/30/19	10-Q	0000920371-19-000113
08/07/19	06/30/19	10-Q	0000920371-19-000090
05/08/19	03/31/19	10-Q	0000920371-19-000062
02/27/19	12/31/18	10-K	0000920371-19-000027
11/08/18	09/30/18	10-Q	0000920371-18-000127
08/07/18	06/30/18	10-Q	0000920371-18-000123
05/09/18	03/31/18	10-Q	0000920371-18-000111
03/01/18	12/31/17	10-K	0000920371-18-000051
11/09/17	09/30/17	10-Q	0000920371-17-000170
08/08/17	06/30/17	10-Q	0000920371-17-000124
05/10/17	03/31/17	10-Q	0000920371-17-000060
02/28/17	12/31/16	10-K	0000920371-17-000042
11/08/16	09/30/16	10-Q	0000920371-16-000291
08/05/16	06/30/16	10-Q	0000920371-16-000269
05/04/16	03/31/16	10-Q	0000920371-16-000246
02/29/16	12/31/15	10-K	0000920371-16-000208
11/05/15	09/30/15	10-Q	0000920371-15-000151
08/07/15	06/30/15	10-Q	0000920371-15-000125
05/07/15	03/31/15	10-Q	0000920371-15-000097
03/02/15	12/31/14	10-K	0000920371-15-000054
11/07/14	09/30/14	10-Q	0000920371-14-000082
08/07/14	06/30/14	10-Q	0000920371-14-000073
05/09/14	03/31/14	10-Q	0001104659-14-037084
03/07/14	12/31/13	10-K	0001104659-14-017569
11/08/13	09/30/13	10-Q	0001104659-13-082775
08/07/13	06/30/13	10-Q	0001104659-13-060877
05/09/13	03/31/13	10-Q	0001104659-13-039411
02/28/13	12/31/12	10-K	0001104659-13-016210
11/06/12	09/30/12	10-Q	0001104659-12-074753
08/08/12	06/30/12	10-Q	0001104659-12-055813
05/08/12	03/31/12	10-Q	0001104659-12-034387
02/28/12	12/31/11	10-K	0001104659-12-013847
11/08/11	09/30/11	10-Q	0001104659-11-061938
08/08/11	06/30/11	10-Q	0001104659-11-044663
05/06/11	03/31/11	10-Q	0001104659-11-026753
02/28/11	12/31/10	10-K	0001104659-11-010904
11/05/10	09/30/10	10-Q	0001104659-10-056560
08/06/10	06/30/10	10-Q	0001104659-10-042719
05/07/10	03/31/10	10-Q	0001104659-10-026805
02/26/10	12/31/09	10-K	0001104659-10-010169
11/06/09	09/30/09	10-Q	0001104659-09-063321
08/07/09	06/30/09	10-Q	0001104659-09-048166
05/08/09	03/30/09	10-Q	0001104659-09-031027
03/02/09	12/31/08	10-K	0001104659-09-013190
11/07/08	09/30/08	10-Q	0001104659-08-069153
08/08/08	06/30/08	10-Q	0001104659-08-051429
05/09/08	03/30/08	Unknown	--
02/29/08	12/31/07	10-K	0001104659-08-014346
11/09/07	09/30/07	10-Q	0001104659-07-081327
08/08/07	06/30/07	10-Q	0001104659-07-060328
05/10/07	03/30/07	Unknown	--
03/01/07	12/31/06	10-K	0001104659-07-015409
11/09/06	09/30/06	10-Q	0001104659-06-072953
08/08/06	06/30/06	10-Q	0001104659-06-052468
05/05/06	03/30/06	Unknown	--
03/03/06	12/31/05	10-K	0001104659-06-013856
11/08/05	09/30/05	10-Q	0001104659-05-053487
08/09/05	06/30/05	10-Q	0001104659-05-037907
05/10/05	03/30/05	Unknown	--
03/14/05	12/31/04	10-K	0001104659-05-010697
11/09/04	09/30/04	10-Q	0001104659-04-034589
08/09/04	06/30/04	10-Q	0001104659-04-023288
05/05/04	03/30/04	Unknown	--
02/27/04	12/31/03	10-K	0001104659-04-005912
11/06/03	09/30/03	10-Q	0001104659-03-024946
08/08/03	06/30/03	10-Q	0001104659-03-017206
05/09/03	03/30/03	Unknown	--
02/21/03	12/31/02	10-K	0001104659-03-002893
11/08/02	09/30/02	10-Q	0001104659-02-005425
08/14/02	06/30/02	10-Q	0001104659-02-004018
05/13/02	03/30/02	Unknown	--
03/29/02	12/31/01	10-K405	0000912057-02-012544
11/14/01	09/30/01	4	0000950149-01-501477
08/14/01	06/30/01	4	0000950149-01-501019
05/14/01	03/30/01	Unknown	--
03/29/01	12/31/00	8-K	0000920371-00-000044
11/14/00	09/30/00	4	0000920371-00-000039
08/11/00	06/30/00	10-Q	0000920371-00-000031
05/15/00	03/30/00	Unknown	--