ST

State Street Corp

STT
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State Street Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • FCF TTM is -6.6B despite 8B operating cash flow - massive working capital swings (6.8B) distort true cash generation in custody banking model.[Free Cash Flow]
  • Interest expense of 9.0B TTM exceeds total revenue of 13.7B - reflects deposit-funded balance sheet, not debt burden (34.5B debt vs 127B cash).[Interest Expense]
  • Net margin 21.7% TTM vs industry median 95% - misleading comparison; STT's custody/asset servicing model has fundamentally different revenue recognition.[Net Margin]

Watch Triggers

  • Change in Working Capital: Swings >5B for 2+ consecutive quartersSignals deposit flight or client AUC/AUM stress - core franchise health indicator.
  • ROE: Falls below 10% TTMWould indicate NII tailwind exhausted; questions capital allocation efficiency.
  • Goodwill: Impairment charge announced7.9B goodwill at risk if asset servicing fees decline with market values.

Bull Case

Massive liquidity buffer (127B cash, 34% of assets) provides stability and optionality for M&A or buybacks in market dislocations.

Cash and EquivalentsTotal Assets

Net income of 3.0B TTM on 24.1B equity yields 12.7% ROE - above industry median 8.5% despite conservative balance sheet.

ROENet Income

Bear Case

Goodwill of 7.9B represents 33% of common equity - acquisition-heavy history creates impairment risk if AUM/AUC declines.

GoodwillCommon Stockholders Equity

Negative FCF (-6.6B TTM) and debt/equity 1.43x limit capital return flexibility vs peers with stronger cash conversion.

Free Cash FlowDebt to Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Take Me to The Editor

Forward Thesis

ROE compression likely as rate environment normalizes, pressuring NII contribution to earnings.

1-3ymed
  • Interest expense 9.0B reflects rate-sensitive deposit base
  • ROE 12.7% TTM below historical norms for custody banks
  • ROIC 5.0% suggests limited reinvestment opportunities
ROE TTM 12.7% vs industry median 8.5%Interest expense/revenue ratio 66%Tangible book 15.2B vs equity 24.1B
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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