ST

Constellation Brands Inc

STZ
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Constellation Brands Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 31.6% vs industry median 13.2% - 2.4x advantage drives 3B operating income on 9.6B revenue[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Tangible book value negative (-212M) with goodwill 69% of equity (5.2B) - asset quality depends on brand valuations[Tangible Book Value]
  • EPS declined 39% YoY despite stable revenue - one-time items or margin pressure warrants investigation[EPS Growth 1Y]

Watch Triggers

  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 1.5x or interest coverage falls below 4xBalance sheet stress would force dividend cut or equity raise
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 28% for two consecutive quartersWould signal pricing power erosion or input cost inflation
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 1.5B annuallyInsufficient to service debt and maintain 4.06 dividend

Bull Case

Premium beer portfolio generates 31.6% operating margins with 19.2% FCF yield on invested capital - rare pricing power in consumer staples

Operating Margin TTMFree Cash Flow TTMInvested Capital

P/E of 13.2x vs industry median 21.4x despite superior margins - valuation discount of 38% if margins sustain

PE RatioOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

Debt load of 10.5B (1.4x equity) with only 72M cash creates refinancing risk if rates stay elevated

Total DebtCash and EquivalentsDebt to Equity

EPS down 39% YoY signals potential margin compression or write-downs; wine/spirits divestiture impact unclear

EPS Growth 1YNet Income TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation (1.8B TTM) supports debt paydown, reducing 1.4x D/E toward 1.0x within 3 years

1-3ymed
  • Net debt repayment of 1B in latest period
  • FCF covers interest expense 4.7x
  • Capex declining as brewery investments mature
Net debt issuance -1B TTMInterest expense 390M vs FCF 1.8BCapex 921M vs cash flow 2.8B
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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