SY

Sysco Corp

SYY
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Sysco Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Debt/equity of 7.1x with tangible book value negative (-4.2B) - equity is effectively goodwill (5.2B) and intangibles[Debt to Equity]
  • ROE of 85% TTM driven by minimal equity base (2.1B) vs 14.6B debt - leverage amplifies returns and risks equally[Return on Equity TTM]
  • FCF of 1.6B TTM covers 1.0B dividends but leaves thin margin for 12.5B net debt reduction at current pace[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 700M or >25% of operating incomeAt 647M already consuming 21% of op income; rate increases compress thin margins
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 1.2BWould force dividend cut or debt increase; current 1.6B barely covers 1.0B dividend
  • Gross Margin TTM: Drops below 17%Signals pricing power erosion; 18.4% already at industry premium

Bull Case

Scale dominance: 82B revenue (20x industry median) with asset turnover 3.1x enables operating leverage unavailable to smaller peers

Total Revenue TTMAsset Turnover TTM

ROIC of 11.2% TTM exceeds cost of debt (~4.4% implied), creating value despite high leverage

Return on Invested Capital TTMInterest Expense TTM

Bear Case

Balance sheet fragility: 7.1x debt/equity with negative tangible book means any earnings miss directly threatens solvency ratios

Debt to EquityTangible Book Value

Dividend payout ratio 5Y avg of 74% constrains deleveraging; 2.1/share dividend consumes most of 3.73 EPS

Dividend Payout Ratio Avg 5yrEPS TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion limited by structural cost pressures in low-margin food distribution

1-3yhigh
  • Gross margin 18.4% vs industry median 15.2% - already optimized
  • Operating margin 3.8% leaves minimal room for improvement
  • Interest expense 647M consumes 21% of operating income
Operating margin TTM 3.8% vs industry median 1.2%Net margin TTM 2.2% vs industry median 0.6%EPS growth 5Y of 18.7% vs median 10.7%
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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