TD

Telephone and Data Systems Inc

TDS
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Telephone and Data Systems Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • Revenue down 39% 3Y and 25% 5Y while industry median grew 3% - structural decline accelerating post-asset sales[Total Revenue 3Y Growth]
  • FCF of -102M TTM with 884M capex (18% of revenue) - capital intensity crushing cash generation despite 1.4B EBITDA[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Interest expense 300M vs operating income 165M TTM - debt service exceeds operating profit by 1.8x[Interest Expense TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Revenue TTM: Quarterly revenue decline slows to <5% YoYRevenue stabilization prerequisite for any turnaround thesis
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive for 2 consecutive quartersValidates capex reduction strategy without sacrificing network quality
  • Interest Expense TTM: Falls below Operating Income TTMInterest coverage <1x is unsustainable; crossing above signals viability

Bull Case

Gross margin 58% TTM at industry median with 1.4B EBITDA - core operations profitable if capex normalizes post-network build

Gross Margin TTMEBITDA TTM

Debt/equity 0.42 with 1.6B deleveraging completed - balance sheet repair creates optionality for M&A or dividend resumption

Debt to EquityNet Long Term Debt Issuance

Bear Case

Revenue declining 8-10% annually with negative ROIC (-0.7% TTM) vs industry median 4.6% - value destruction ongoing

ROIC TTMTotal Revenue 3Y Growth

Operating margin 3.4% vs industry 8.9% with 300M interest burden - no path to profitability without revenue stabilization

Operating Margin TTMInterest Expense TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
30%

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Forward Thesis

Debt reduction of 1.6B signals strategic pivot but leaves limited runway for network investment

1-3ymed
  • Net debt paydown of 1.6B in TTM period
  • Capex at 884M still required for network maintenance
  • Cash of 933M provides ~1 year buffer at current burn
Net Long Term Debt Issuance: -1.6B TTMCash and Equivalents: 933MFree Cash Flow: -102M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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