TI

Millicom International Cellular SA

TIGO
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Millicom International Cellular SA AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • Goodwill/intangibles of 7.1B is 212% of equity (3.3B) - tangible book value is negative (-3.8B), creating material impairment risk[Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets]
  • Operating margin 26.3% TTM vs industry median 8.9% - 3x advantage drives ROE of 30.7% despite 2.5x debt/equity leverage[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF of 895M TTM (16% margin) covers 2.50 dividend (420M) 2x over while servicing 554M interest expense[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 600M or >40% of operating incomeCurrently 38% of operating income - breach signals debt service crowding out returns
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 700MWould impair dividend coverage and deleveraging thesis
  • Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets: Any impairment charge announcedWould wipe equity given negative tangible book value

Bull Case

EBITDA of 3.2B TTM at 58% margin generates massive cash - 1.7B operating cash flow funds dividends, debt paydown, and capex internally

EBITDA TTMCash Flow TTMOperating Margin TTM

P/E of 18x at industry median despite 3x operating margin advantage and 30.7% ROE suggests undervaluation vs quality

PE RatioROE TTMOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

Debt/equity of 2.5x with 8.4B total debt and 554M annual interest consumes 62% of operating income - refinancing risk in rising rate environment

Debt to EquityTotal DebtInterest Expense TTM

Negative tangible book (-3.8B) means equity is entirely goodwill-dependent - any LatAm market deterioration triggers write-downs

Tangible Book ValueGoodwill and Other Intangible Assets

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

Deleveraging from 2.5x to sub-2x debt/equity within 18 months as FCF accumulates

1-3ymed
  • 895M annual FCF generation
  • No major capex expansion needed
  • Mature LatAm telecom markets
FCF 895M vs 8.4B total debtCapex 816M TTM is maintenance-levelEPS growth 20.8% 1Y shows execution
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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