TN

Trinet Group Inc

TNET
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Trinet Group Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • Tangible book value is -502M with debt/equity of 8.6x - equity is essentially goodwill (461M of 110M equity base)[Tangible Book Value]
  • ROE of 111% TTM driven by razor-thin equity base (110M) vs 133M net income - leverage amplifies returns[Return on Equity TTM]
  • FCF of 238M TTM on 2.9B market cap = 8.3% FCF yield despite -17% EPS 3Y CAGR decline[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 15%Already at 17.7% vs 36.6% industry median - further compression threatens profitability
  • Goodwill: Impairment charge announced461M goodwill is 4.2x total equity - any writedown could trigger covenant issues
  • Total Revenue TTM: Declines >5% YoYHigh operating leverage means revenue drops flow through to earnings at 3-4x rate

Bull Case

Asset-light model: 1.4x asset turnover TTM with only 48M PPE generates 238M FCF - minimal reinvestment needed

Asset Turnover TTMFree Cash Flow TTMPPE

P/S of 0.57x vs industry 1.48x median offers value if revenue stabilizes; 8.3% FCF yield funds buybacks

P/S RatioFree Cash Flow TTM

Bear Case

Negative tangible equity (-502M) with 8.6x debt/equity - goodwill impairment would eliminate book value entirely

Tangible Book ValueDebt to EquityGoodwill

Revenue stagnant (-0.2% 3Y CAGR) while gross profit declining 5.7% YoY signals pricing/mix pressure

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthGross Profit 1Y Growth

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Capital-light PEO model generates cash but faces structural revenue headwinds

1-3ymed
  • FCF margin 4.7% with minimal capex (69M TTM)
  • Revenue flat 3Y CAGR (-0.2%) vs industry +4.8%
  • Gross margin 17.7% vs industry 36.6% median
FCF 238M on 5B revenue TTMGross profit down 5.7% YoYOperating margin 4.7% vs 5.1% industry
Valuation Context
Caveats

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