TO
Toll Brothers Inc
TOL—
Toll Brothers Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Inventory of 11.1B is 77% of total assets - massive capital tied up in land/homes, typical for luxury homebuilder but amplifies cycle risk[Inventory]
- ROE TTM 17.7% vs industry median 10.5% with debt/equity of only 0.38 - superior returns without leverage[Return on Equity TTM]
- 5Y EPS CAGR 32.9% vs industry median 14.4% - more than 2x peer growth rate despite mature revenue growth of 12.3%[EPS Growth 5Y]
Watch Triggers
- Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 22% — Would signal pricing power erosion and potential inventory writedowns ahead
- Change in Inventory: Inventory growth exceeds revenue growth — Rising inventory/revenue ratio signals demand weakness and capital trap
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negative for 2+ quarters — Would indicate cash burn from unsold inventory, threatening buybacks and dividend
Bull Case
P/E of 10.3x at industry median despite 2x better EPS growth (32.9% vs 14.4%) and 70% higher ROE (17.7% vs 10.5%) - quality discount
PE RatioEPS Growth 5YROE TTM
FCF of 918M TTM (8.4% yield on market cap) with 199M buybacks - returning capital while maintaining 852M cash buffer
Free Cash Flow TTMCommon Stock PaymentsCash and Equivalents
Bear Case
11.1B inventory (102% of revenue) creates massive impairment risk if housing prices decline - book value 8.1B could erode quickly
InventoryTangible Book ValueTotal Revenue TTM
Luxury segment most exposed to rate sensitivity and wealth effect - 3.1B debt refinancing risk if rates stay elevated
Long Term DebtTotal DebtInterest Income
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
55%
Leverage TOL's top insights and create a custom strategy based on them in seconds. Our AI editor does it all — in one click.
Forward Thesis
Margin compression likely as housing cycle matures and land costs normalize
1-3ymed
- Gross margin 25.6% near cycle highs
- 11.1B inventory must convert to revenue
- Interest rates pressuring luxury demand
Operating margin 16.3% vs 10% industry median5Y revenue CAGR 12.3% slowingNet debt 2.1B with 3.1B total debt
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
See how Toll Brothers Inc ranks across different investment strategies.
Leverage TOL's top insights and create a custom strategy in seconds. Our AI editor does it all — in one click.
TOL Fundamentals
Construction → Construction of Buildings
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$14.31B | — | ||
$15.96B | — | ||
11 | — | ||
$10.97B | +1.1% | — | |
$13.49 | -10.1% | — | |
15.7% | -3.1% | — | |
12.3% | -2.2% | — | |
$1.03B | +9.6% | — | |
0.17 | -4.8% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
TOL Dividend History
36 dividends
2026
$0.250001/09/26$0.2500
2025
$0.980010/10/25$0.2500
07/11/25$0.2500
04/11/25$0.2500
01/10/25$0.2300
2024
$0.900010/11/24$0.2300
07/05/24$0.2300
04/04/24$0.2300
01/11/24$0.2100
2023
$0.830010/05/23$0.2100
07/06/23$0.2100
04/05/23$0.2100
01/05/23$0.2000
2022
$0.770010/06/22$0.2000
07/07/22$0.2000
04/07/22$0.2000
01/06/22$0.1700
2021
$0.620010/07/21$0.1700
07/08/21$0.1700
04/08/21$0.1700
01/07/21$0.1100
2020
$0.440010/08/20$0.1100
07/09/20$0.1100
04/08/20$0.1100
01/09/20$0.1100
2019
$0.440010/10/19$0.1100
07/11/19$0.1100
04/11/19$0.1100
01/10/19$0.1100
2018
$0.410010/11/18$0.1100
07/12/18$0.1100
04/12/18$0.1100
01/11/18$0.0800
2017
$0.240010/12/17$0.0800
07/12/17$0.0800
04/11/17$0.0800
TOL Stock Splits
1 stock split
07/11/050.5:1 split
TOL SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
12/19/25 | 10/31/25 | 10-K | |
08/28/25 | 07/31/25 | 10-Q | |
05/29/25 | 04/30/25 | 10-Q | |
02/28/25 | 01/31/25 | 10-Q | |
12/20/24 | 10/31/24 | 10-K | |
09/04/24 | 07/31/24 | 10-Q | |
05/31/24 | 04/30/24 | 10-Q | |
03/01/24 | 01/31/24 | 10-Q | |
12/21/23 | 10/31/23 | 10-K | |
08/31/23 | 07/31/23 | 10-Q | |
06/01/23 | 04/30/23 | 10-Q | |
03/02/23 | 01/31/23 | 10-Q | |
12/19/22 | 10/31/22 | 10-K | |
09/01/22 | 07/31/22 | 10-Q | |
06/02/22 | 04/30/22 | 10-Q | |
03/03/22 | 01/31/22 | 10-Q | |
12/17/21 | 10/31/21 | 10-K | |
09/02/21 | 07/31/21 | 10-Q | |
06/03/21 | 04/30/21 | 10-Q | |
03/08/21 | 01/31/21 | 10-Q | |
12/22/20 | 10/31/20 | 10-K | |
09/04/20 | 07/31/20 | 10-Q | |
06/08/20 | 04/30/20 | 10-Q | |
03/10/20 | 01/31/20 | 10-Q | |
12/26/19 | 10/31/19 | 10-K | |
09/05/19 | 07/31/19 | 10-Q | |
06/06/19 | 04/30/19 | 10-Q | |
03/08/19 | 01/31/19 | 10-Q | |
12/20/18 | 10/31/18 | 10-K | |
09/05/18 | 07/31/18 | 10-Q | |
06/05/18 | 04/30/18 | 10-Q | |
03/08/18 | 01/31/18 | 10-Q | |
12/21/17 | 10/31/17 | 10-K | |
09/06/17 | 07/31/17 | 10-Q | |
06/05/17 | 04/30/17 | 10-Q | |
03/07/17 | 01/31/17 | 10-Q | |
12/23/16 | 10/31/16 | 10-K | |
09/07/16 | 07/31/16 | 10-Q | |
06/03/16 | 04/30/16 | 10-Q | |
03/03/16 | 01/31/16 | 10-Q | |
12/21/15 | 10/31/15 | 10-K | |
09/03/15 | 07/31/15 | 10-Q | |
06/04/15 | 04/30/15 | 10-Q | |
03/05/15 | 01/31/15 | 10-Q | |
12/23/14 | 10/31/14 | 10-K | |
09/05/14 | 07/31/14 | 10-Q | |
06/06/14 | 04/30/14 | 10-Q | |
03/10/14 | 01/31/14 | 10-Q | |
12/23/13 | 10/31/13 | 10-K | |
09/05/13 | 07/31/13 | 10-Q | |
06/10/13 | 04/30/13 | 10-Q | |
03/07/13 | 01/31/13 | 10-Q | |
12/28/12 | 10/31/12 | 10-K | |
08/31/12 | 07/31/12 | 10-Q | |
06/07/12 | 04/30/12 | 10-Q | |
03/08/12 | 01/31/12 | 10-Q | |
07/16/13 | 01/31/12 | 10-Q/A | |
12/22/11 | 10/31/11 | 10-K | |
09/07/11 | 07/31/11 | 10-Q | |
06/07/11 | 04/30/11 | 10-Q | |
03/08/11 | 01/31/11 | 10-Q | |
12/22/10 | 10/31/10 | 10-K | |
07/16/13 | 10/31/10 | 10-K/A | |
09/08/10 | 07/31/10 | 10-Q | |
06/08/10 | 04/30/10 | 10-Q | |
03/10/10 | 01/31/10 | 10-Q | |
12/21/09 | 10/31/09 | 10-K | |
09/03/09 | 07/31/09 | 10-Q | |
06/08/09 | 04/30/09 | 10-Q | |
03/11/09 | 01/31/09 | 10-Q | |
12/19/08 | 10/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
09/09/08 | 07/31/08 | 10-Q | |
06/06/08 | 04/30/08 | 10-Q | |
03/10/08 | 01/29/08 | Unknown | -- |
12/21/07 | 10/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
09/06/07 | 07/31/07 | 10-Q | |
06/08/07 | 04/30/07 | 10-Q | |
03/09/07 | 01/28/07 | Unknown | -- |
01/05/07 | 10/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
09/01/06 | 07/31/06 | 10-Q | |
06/06/06 | 04/30/06 | 10-Q | |
03/10/06 | 01/28/06 | Unknown | -- |
01/13/06 | 10/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
09/08/05 | 07/31/05 | 10-Q | |
06/09/05 | 04/30/05 | 10-Q | |
03/14/05 | 01/28/05 | Unknown | -- |
01/13/05 | 10/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
09/09/04 | 07/31/04 | 10-Q | |
06/09/04 | 04/30/04 | 10-Q | |
03/15/04 | 01/29/04 | Unknown | -- |
01/15/04 | 10/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
09/11/03 | 07/31/03 | 10-Q | |
06/11/03 | 04/30/03 | 10-Q | |
03/14/03 | 01/28/03 | Unknown | -- |
01/13/03 | 10/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
09/10/02 | 07/31/02 | 10-Q | |
06/13/02 | 04/30/02 | 10-Q | |
03/14/02 | 01/28/02 | Unknown | -- |
10/31/01 | 10/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
07/31/01 | 07/31/01 | Unknown | -- |
04/30/01 | 04/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
03/15/01 | 01/28/01 | Unknown | -- |
01/12/01 | 10/30/00 | Unknown | -- |
09/12/00 | 07/31/00 | 10-Q | |
06/07/00 | 04/30/00 | 10-Q | |
03/14/00 | 01/29/00 | Unknown | -- |