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Trinseo PLC

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Trinseo PLC AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-31

Snapshot

  • Equity is NEGATIVE (-861.6M) with debt of 2.6B at 146x market cap (17.9M) - severe balance sheet distress[Common Stockholders Equity]
  • Interest expense TTM (274.2M) exceeds EBITDA (103.4M) by 2.6x - cannot service debt from operations[Interest Expense]
  • Gross profit TTM collapsed 54% YoY while revenue down only 14% 3Y CAGR - margin destruction accelerating[Gross Profit 1Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 75MAt -40M quarterly burn rate, triggers liquidity crisis within 2 quarters
  • EBITDA: Fails to exceed interest expense (274M)Debt covenant violations likely if coverage ratio stays below 1x
  • Gross Margin: Remains below 15%Cannot generate operating profit at current 6.2% gross margin structure

Bull Case

Asset turnover of 1.17x exceeds industry median (0.56x) by 2x - operational efficiency exists if margins recover

Asset Turnover

Working capital positive (248.2M) with receivables/inventory providing potential liquidity buffer

Working CapitalAccounts ReceivableInventory

Bear Case

Total debt (2.6B) is 144x market cap with negative equity - equity holders likely wiped out in restructuring

Total DebtMarket CapCommon Stockholders Equity

Operating margin -4.1% vs industry median 0% with gross margin at 6.2% vs median 36.8% - structurally uncompetitive

Operating MarginGross Margin

Bull vs Bear Balance

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Forward Thesis

Debt restructuring or bankruptcy likely within 12-24 months without dramatic operational turnaround

1-3yhigh
  • 2.6B debt vs 17.9M market cap = 99% debt-funded
  • FCF negative (-96.1M TTM) with no path to coverage
  • Interest expense 2.6x EBITDA and growing
Net debt 2.4B vs enterprise value 2.5BOperating loss of -128.3M TTMCash burn -39.9M TTM with only 112M cash

Valuation Context

Caveats

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