TW

Two Harbors Investment Corp

TWO
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Two Harbors Investment Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-05

Snapshot

  • Tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-1.5B) with goodwill of 2.6B representing 224% of common equity - severe impairment risk[Tangible Book Value]
  • Net margin TTM of -47.9% vs industry median +15.4% - structural profitability crisis, not cyclical[Net Margin TTM]
  • Interest expense of 524M TTM exceeds total revenue of 395M by 33% - debt service unsustainable[Interest Expense TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets: Any impairment charge announced2.6B goodwill write-down would eliminate common equity entirely
  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 400MAt -178M FCF burn rate, signals <2 quarters liquidity runway
  • Current Debt: Refinancing terms or maturity extensions954M current debt rollover critical with negative cash flow

Bull Case

Cash position of 771M (887M end position) provides 4+ quarters runway despite negative FCF of -178M TTM

Cash and EquivalentsFree Cash Flow TTM

Net investment sales of 2.0B TTM shows ability to monetize portfolio - potential path to deleveraging

Net Investment Purchase and SaleCash Flow from Continuing Investing Activities

Bear Case

Interest expense (524M) exceeds revenue (395M) - core business cannot service debt without asset sales

Interest Expense TTMTotal Revenue TTM

ROE -13.8%, ROIC -5.8% TTM with no dividend - zero shareholder value creation pathway visible

ROE TTMROIC TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Balance sheet restructuring likely within 12-18 months as negative tangible equity forces action

1-3yhigh
  • Goodwill 2.6B vs equity 1.2B creates impairment trigger risk
  • Current debt 954M due near-term with negative FCF
  • Interest costs 133% of revenue mathematically unsustainable
Tangible BV -1.5B TTMFCF -178M TTMNet loss -189M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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