TX

Texas Instruments Inc

TXN
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Texas Instruments Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 34.8% TTM is 14x industry median (2.4%) - structural analog/embedded dominance enables pricing power[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Capex of 4.8B TTM (28% of revenue) vs industry median 18.6M - massive fab buildout consuming FCF, only 2.1B FCF remains[Capital Expenditure TTM]
  • EPS declined 15% over 3Y despite 6% 1Y growth - cyclical recovery incomplete, dividend payout ratio 98% strains coverage[EPS Growth 3Y]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 1.5B or dividend coverage <1xCurrent 2.1B FCF barely covers 5.0B dividend; further compression forces cut
  • Inventory: Exceeds 5.5B or days >1504.8B inventory at cycle trough; buildup signals demand weakness
  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Remains above 4B beyond 2026Extended capex cycle delays FCF normalization and dividend safety

Bull Case

Industry-leading margins (35% operating, 29% net TTM) with 16% ROIC despite peak capex cycle - returns expand as fabs ramp

Operating Margin TTMROIC TTMCapital Expenditure TTM

Dividend yield 3.3% (5.44/share TTM) with 71% 5Y avg payout ratio signals confidence; current 98% payout is cyclical trough

Dividends Paid Per Share TTMDividend Payout Ratio Avg 5Y

Bear Case

Debt of 14B (0.84 D/E) with 532M interest expense TTM pressures FCF; net debt 10.7B limits flexibility during downturn

Total DebtDebt to EquityNet Debt

P/E 32.5x at industry median but P/S 9.6x is 3.2x median - premium pricing assumes flawless execution on capacity ramp

P/E RatioP/S Ratio

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Fab capacity expansion positions TXN for analog share gains as reshoring accelerates

3-5ymed
  • 12.3B PPE (35% of assets) vs 4.6B intangibles - tangible manufacturing moat
  • R&D at 2.1B TTM (12% of revenue) sustains product differentiation
  • CHIPS Act subsidies reduce effective capex burden
Capex 4.8B TTM is 258x industry medianROIC 16.1% TTM despite heavy investment cycleInventory 4.8B supports demand recovery
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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