UD

Udemy Inc

UDMY
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Udemy Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-09

Snapshot

  • FCF of 64.4M TTM (8.1% margin) vs operating loss of -5.3M - cash generation decoupled from GAAP profitability[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Asset turnover 1.3x TTM vs industry median 0.33x - 4x capital efficiency advantage in asset-light model[Asset Turnover TTM]
  • EV of 583M at 0.73x revenue vs industry median 1.65x P/S - discounted despite positive FCF[Enterprise Value]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Crosses above 0% for 2 consecutive quartersConfirms operating leverage thesis - GAAP breakeven validates business model
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 40M or FCF margin below 5%Cash generation is primary bull case - deterioration invalidates thesis
  • Revenue Growth: Decelerates below 5% YoYOperating leverage requires topline growth - stagnation prevents margin expansion

Bull Case

FCF machine at 8.1% margin with near-zero debt (0.05x D/E) - 236M cash provides 3+ years runway without dilution

Free Cash Flow TTMDebt to EquityCash and Equivalents

Trading at 9.9x PCF vs industry median 13.6x despite superior cash generation profile

PCF RatioPS RatioEnterprise Value

Bear Case

5-year EPS CAGR of -8.1% signals structural profitability challenges despite revenue scale

EPS Growth 5yrNet Margin TTMROE TTM

P/E of 785x on minimal earnings - any margin compression destroys equity value quickly

PE RatioOperating Margin TTMNet Income TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Path to sustained GAAP profitability within 12-18 months as operating leverage kicks in

1-3ymed
  • 65% gross margin provides cushion for OpEx absorption
  • R&D at 13% of revenue can stabilize as platform matures
  • Current liabilities 389M vs 524M current assets - no liquidity pressure
EBITDA TTM 28.8M positive vs -6.7M industry medianOperating loss narrowed to -0.7% margin TTMCash flow TTM 81.7M vs industry median -5.6M
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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