UV

Universal Corp

UVV
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Universal Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • Operating margin TTM 8.3% vs industry median 1.2% - 7x advantage in commodity distribution business[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Inventory of 1.4B (46% of assets) with 1.4B working capital - capital-intensive model with significant commodity exposure[Inventory]
  • Dividend payout ratio 7yr avg 79% vs industry 19% - committed income play but limits reinvestment capacity[Dividend Payout Ratio Avg 7yr]

Watch Triggers

  • Inventory: Rises above 50% of total assetsSignals commodity buildup or demand weakness; currently at 44%
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 80M or 50% of operating incomeCurrently 76M (30% of operating income); rising rates compress margins
  • Dividend Payout Ratio: Exceeds 100% of earnings91% of EPS paid as dividends - minimal cushion for earnings decline

Bull Case

P/E 12.1x vs industry 25.4x with 4.1 dividend/share (9% yield at current price) - deep value for income investors

PE RatioDividends Paid Per Share TTM

EPS growth 5yr 35% and 3yr 16% outpaces commodity peers; operating margin 7x industry median shows pricing power

EPS Growth 5yrOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

Debt/equity 0.81x with 76M interest expense consuming 68% of pretax income - leverage magnifies commodity risk

Debt to EquityInterest Expense TTM

Secular tobacco decline: 3B revenue in shrinking industry with 1.4B inventory exposure to commodity price swings

Total Revenue TTMInventory

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation likely to remain stable but constrained by working capital intensity

1-3ymed
  • 157M FCF TTM on 3B revenue = 5.3% FCF margin
  • Inventory cycle ties up 1.4B in commodity tobacco
  • Capex minimal at 45M (1.5% of revenue)
FCF TTM 157M, operating cash flow 202MWorking capital 1.4B vs 89M cashInterest expense 76M on 1.2B debt
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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