WG

Winnebago Industries Inc

WGO
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Winnebago Industries Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-16

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 484M is 39% of equity (936M intangibles total = 76% of equity) - acquisition-heavy model with impairment risk if RV demand weakens.[Goodwill]
  • FCF of 136M TTM on 2.9B revenue (4.7% yield on market cap) despite -35% EPS 5Y CAGR - cash generation resilient through cycle.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Revenue +12% 1Y growth vs -10% 3Y CAGR signals cyclical recovery inflection; operating margin 2.5% TTM still compressed vs 3.7% industry median.[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Sustained above 4% — Would confirm operating leverage thesis; current 2.5% is trough - 4%+ validates recovery.
  • Inventory: Decline below 350M without revenue drop — 415M inventory is 14% of revenue - reduction signals demand absorption or destocking risk.
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge — 484M goodwill from acquisitions; impairment would signal permanent value destruction.

Bull Case

Asset turnover of 1.3x TTM is 2x industry median (0.66x) - superior capital efficiency means margin recovery flows directly to returns. ROIC of 1.9% at trough has clear path to 8%+.

Asset Turnover TTMROIC TTMInvested Capital

P/S of 0.47x vs 0.90x industry median with 12% revenue growth restarting - valuation prices in permanent decline that 1Y data contradicts.

P/S RatioTotal Revenue 1Y Growth

Bear Case

EPS -52% 3Y CAGR and -35% 5Y CAGR with P/E of 35x TTM - current earnings are cyclically depressed but multiple assumes full recovery already priced.

EPS Growth 3YEPS Growth 5YP/E Ratio

Debt of 579M at 0.47x equity with interest expense of 26M consuming 71% of net income (36M TTM) - leverage amplifies downside if recovery stalls.

Debt to EquityInterest Expense TTMNet Income TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Margin recovery to 5%+ operating margin as revenue normalizes would double net income from current 36M TTM base.

1-3ymed
  • Revenue inflection (+12% 1Y) after 3Y decline
  • Fixed cost leverage on 305M operating expense base
  • Inventory of 415M positioned for demand uptick
Operating margin 2.5% TTM vs 3.7% industry medianAsset turnover 1.3x vs 0.66x median shows efficiencyFCF 136M proves cash generation through trough
Valuation Context
Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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