WN

Wabash National Corp

WNC
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Wabash National Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • ROE of 84% TTM vs industry median 2% - 40x advantage driven by 16% net margin and high asset turnover (1.17x).[Return on Equity]
  • Revenue down 18% YoY with gross profit collapsing 72% YoY - severe margin compression despite positive operating income.[Gross Profit 1Y Growth]
  • Goodwill at 47% of equity (197M/419M) with 20K impairment charge already taken - balance sheet quality risk.[Goodwill]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 5% or fails to recover above 15%Current 7.3% gross margin unsustainable for 22.6% operating margin - reveals one-time gain dependency.
  • Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Continues negative beyond -10% for 2 more quarters18% YoY decline suggests demand destruction; stabilization needed to justify current valuation.
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 50M or turns negative108M FCF is primary bull case support; deterioration invalidates capital return thesis.

Bull Case

ROIC of 35.5% TTM (vs industry median 0.5%) with FCF of 108M generating 27% FCF yield on 401M market cap.

ROIC TTMFree Cash Flow TTMMarket Cap

Debt/equity 1.04x manageable with interest coverage of 18x (371M EBIT / 21M interest expense TTM).

Debt to EquityInterest Expense TTMEBIT TTM

Bear Case

Revenue contracting 18% YoY and 16% over 3Y with gross profit down 72% - structural demand destruction, not cycle.

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthTotal Revenue 3Y GrowthGross Profit 1Y Growth

Operating income inflated by non-recurring items: negative operating expense (-252M) masks true profitability.

Operating Expense TTMOperating Income TTMGross Profit TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Margin normalization likely as 72% gross profit decline signals cyclical trough, not sustainable profitability.

3-12mhigh
  • Operating margin 22.6% TTM unsustainable with 7.3% gross margin
  • Revenue decline (-18% YoY) accelerating vs 3Y trend (-16%)
  • Cost structure mismatch: operating expense negative indicates one-time gains
Gross margin 7.3% TTM vs operating margin 22.6% - anomalyOperating expense shows -252M (credit, not expense)Industry median operating margin 3.6% vs WNC 22.6%
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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