WS
Watsco Inc
WSO—
Watsco Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- ROE of 18.9% TTM is 4x industry median (4.7%), driven by 9.8% operating margin vs industry 3.0% - superior capital allocation in distribution.[Return on Equity TTM]
- Inventory up 348M TTM while payables down 258M - 606M working capital absorption signals demand softening or channel stuffing risk.[Change in Inventory]
- Dividend payout ratio 89% TTM (11.40/12.86 EPS) vs 5yr avg 73% - elevated yield but limited reinvestment capacity.[Dividends Paid Per Share TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Change in Inventory: Inventory growth exceeds revenue growth for 2+ quarters — Signals demand weakness or channel stuffing; 348M buildup already elevated
- Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 8.5% (vs current 9.8%) — Margin compression would invalidate premium valuation thesis
- Dividend Payout Ratio: Exceeds 100% of EPS for 2+ quarters — 89% payout leaves thin buffer; cut would signal cash flow stress
Bull Case
Dominant scale with 7.4B revenue generates 16.3% ROIC TTM (5x industry median 3.3%), creating durable moat in fragmented HVAC distribution.
ROIC TTMTotal Revenue TTMAsset Turnover TTM
FCF of 517M TTM (7.0% yield on market cap) with debt/equity of 0.16 provides flexibility for dividends, buybacks, or opportunistic M&A.
Free Cash Flow TTMDebt to EquityDividends Paid Per Share TTM
Bear Case
P/E of 26.4x vs industry 20.8x and P/B of 6.0x prices in perfection; any margin compression from inventory buildup could trigger multiple contraction.
PE RatioPB RatioChange in Inventory
Working capital absorbed 151M TTM with inventory +348M and payables -258M - cash conversion deteriorating despite strong headline FCF.
Change in Working CapitalChange in InventoryChange in Account Payable
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
55%
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Forward Thesis
HVAC replacement cycle and regulatory changes to drive mid-single-digit revenue growth through 2027
1-3ymed
- Aging installed base requires replacement
- 2025 refrigerant regulations force equipment upgrades
- Fragmented contractor base favors scale distributors
7.4B TTM revenue, 6.7x industry medianAsset turnover 1.63x vs 0.91x medianMinimal M&A (80K net) suggests organic focus
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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WSO Fundamentals
Wholesale Trade → Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$14.47B | — | ||
$14.6B | — | ||
30 | — | ||
$7.41B | -0.7% | — | |
$12.86 | -1.0% | — | |
9.80% | +0.1% | — | |
7.04% | +0.1% | — | |
$517.46M | -21.7% | — | |
0.19 | -2.3% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
WSO Dividend History
105 dividends
2026
$3.000001/16/26$3.0000
2025
$11.700010/16/25$3.0000
07/16/25$3.0000
04/15/25$3.0000
01/17/25$2.7000
2024
$10.550010/16/24$2.7000
07/16/24$2.7000
04/12/24$2.7000
01/16/24$2.4500
2023
$9.800010/16/23$2.4500
07/14/23$2.4500
04/14/23$2.4500
01/13/23$2.4500
2022
$8.550010/14/22$2.2000
07/14/22$2.2000
04/13/22$2.2000
01/13/22$1.9500
2021
$7.625010/14/21$1.9500
07/14/21$1.9500
04/14/21$1.9500
01/14/21$1.7750
2020
$6.925010/14/20$1.7750
07/15/20$1.7750
04/14/20$1.7750
01/15/20$1.6000
2019
$6.400010/11/19$1.6000
07/15/19$1.6000
04/12/19$1.6000
01/15/19$1.6000
2018
$5.600010/12/18$1.4500
07/16/18$1.4500
04/13/18$1.4500
01/12/18$1.2500
2017
$4.600010/13/17$1.2500
07/13/17$1.2500
04/11/17$1.0500
01/12/17$1.0500
2016
$3.600010/13/16$1.0500
07/13/16$0.8500
04/13/16$0.8500
01/13/16$0.8500
2015
$2.800010/13/15$0.7000
07/13/15$0.7000
04/13/15$0.7000
01/16/15$0.7000
2014
$2.000010/10/14$0.6000
07/11/14$0.6000
04/11/14$0.4000
01/13/14$0.4000
2013
$1.150010/10/13$0.4000
07/11/13$0.2500
04/11/13$0.2500
01/23/13$0.2500
2012
$7.480010/11/12$5.6200
07/12/12$0.6200
04/12/12$0.6200
01/11/12$0.6200
2011
$2.230010/12/11$0.5700
07/13/11$0.5700
04/13/11$0.5700
01/12/11$0.5200
2010
$2.040010/13/10$0.5200
07/13/10$0.5200
04/13/10$0.5200
01/13/10$0.4800
2009
$1.890010/13/09$0.4800
07/13/09$0.4800
04/13/09$0.4800
01/13/09$0.4500
2008
$1.750010/10/08$0.4500
07/11/08$0.4500
04/11/08$0.4500
01/11/08$0.4000
2007
$1.310010/11/07$0.4000
07/11/07$0.3300
04/11/07$0.3300
01/10/07$0.2500
2006
$0.950010/11/06$0.2500
07/12/06$0.2500
04/11/06$0.2500
01/11/06$0.2000
2005
$0.620010/12/05$0.2000
07/13/05$0.1400
04/13/05$0.1400
01/12/05$0.1400
2004
$0.380010/13/04$0.1000
07/13/04$0.1000
04/13/04$0.1000
01/13/04$0.0800
2003
$0.200010/10/03$0.0800
07/11/03$0.0400
04/11/03$0.0400
01/13/03$0.0400
2002
$0.115010/10/02$0.0300
07/11/02$0.0300
04/11/02$0.0300
01/10/02$0.0250
2001
$0.100010/11/01$0.0250
07/11/01$0.0250
04/11/01$0.0250
01/10/01$0.0250
2000
$0.100010/12/00$0.0250
07/12/00$0.0250
04/12/00$0.0250
01/12/00$0.0250
WSO Stock Splits
No stock splits
WSO SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
11/07/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/08/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/09/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/28/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
11/01/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/02/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/03/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/23/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/03/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/03/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/05/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/24/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/03/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/04/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/05/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/25/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/04/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/05/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/06/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/26/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/05/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/06/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/07/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/28/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/01/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/08/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/09/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/28/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/08/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/03/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/09/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
03/01/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/07/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
07/28/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/05/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/21/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/03/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/09/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/06/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/29/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/05/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
08/06/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
05/07/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/24/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
11/04/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
08/01/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/01/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/27/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/01/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/02/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
04/30/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/28/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/08/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/09/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/09/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
02/29/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/08/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/09/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
05/10/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
03/01/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
08/09/13 | 12/31/10 | 10-K/A | |
11/05/10 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
08/06/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
05/07/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
02/26/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
11/09/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
08/07/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
05/08/09 | 03/30/09 | 10-Q | |
02/27/09 | 12/31/08 | 10-K | |
11/06/08 | 09/30/08 | 10-Q | |
08/07/08 | 06/30/08 | 10-Q | |
05/09/08 | 03/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
02/29/08 | 12/31/07 | 5 | |
11/09/07 | 09/30/07 | 10-Q | |
08/09/07 | 06/30/07 | 10-Q | |
05/10/07 | 03/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
03/01/07 | 12/31/06 | 5 | |
11/09/06 | 09/30/06 | 10-Q | |
08/09/06 | 06/30/06 | 10-Q | |
05/10/06 | 03/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
03/16/06 | 12/31/05 | 5 | |
11/09/05 | 09/30/05 | 10-Q | |
08/09/05 | 06/30/05 | 10-Q | |
05/10/05 | 03/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
03/16/05 | 12/31/04 | 5 | |
11/09/04 | 09/30/04 | 10-Q | |
08/09/04 | 06/30/04 | 10-Q | |
05/10/04 | 03/31/04 | 4 | |
03/15/04 | 12/31/03 | 5 | |
11/14/03 | 09/30/03 | 10-Q | |
08/14/03 | 06/30/03 | 10-Q | |
05/15/03 | 03/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
03/31/03 | 12/31/02 | 10-K | |
11/14/02 | 09/30/02 | 10-Q | |
08/14/02 | 06/30/02 | 10-Q | |
05/15/02 | 03/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
03/29/02 | 12/31/01 | 10-K405 | |
11/14/01 | 09/30/01 | 10-Q | |
08/07/01 | 06/30/01 | 10-Q | |
05/15/01 | 03/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
04/02/01 | 12/31/00 | 10-K405 | |
11/14/00 | 09/30/00 | 10-Q | |
08/15/00 | 06/30/00 | 10-Q | |
05/09/00 | 03/30/00 | Unknown | -- |