XO

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM
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Exxon Mobil Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Revenue of 324.9B TTM is 368x industry median (881.5M) - dominant scale in fragmented sector with 11% operating margin vs 18% median.[Total Revenue TTM]
  • FCF of 23.8B TTM (7.3% yield on revenue) funds 27.7B capex AND 5.1B buybacks while maintaining 0.16 debt/equity.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • ROE 11.3% and ROIC 9.8% TTM lag industry medians (7.7% and 5.1%) less than expected given scale - capital intensity drag.[Return on Equity TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 8% or rises above 15%Margin compression signals cost inflation; expansion validates portfolio optimization thesis.
  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Drops below 22B or exceeds 32BLower capex = FCF inflection; higher capex = extended investment cycle, delayed returns.
  • Debt to Equity: Rises above 0.30Would signal balance sheet stress or aggressive M&A, changing risk profile.

Bull Case

Unmatched scale (324.9B revenue) with fortress balance sheet (0.16 D/E, 28.2B net debt) enables counter-cyclical M&A and dividend stability through commodity cycles.

Total Revenue TTMDebt to EquityNet Debt

Operating CF of 51.5B TTM (15.9% of revenue) self-funds entire capital program while returning 5.1B to shareholders via buybacks.

Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMNet Common Stock Issuance

Bear Case

Operating margin 11% TTM trails industry median 18% - scale not translating to profitability advantage, suggesting cost structure issues or portfolio mix drag.

Operating Margin TTMGross Margin TTM

298.4B in PPE (66% of assets) requires continuous reinvestment - 27.7B capex just to maintain position creates structural FCF ceiling.

Property Plant and EquipmentCapital Expenditure TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Capital discipline will drive FCF expansion as 27.7B capex cycle matures over 1-3 years.

1-3ymed
  • Guyana/Permian projects approaching peak production
  • Capex intensity (8.5% of revenue) above peers
  • Net debt only 28.2B vs 51.5B operating cash flow
FCF 23.8B despite 27.7B capex TTMDebt/equity 0.16 provides flexibilityOperating CF 51.5B covers all obligations
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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