Xponential Fitness Inc
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Xponential Fitness Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Negative equity of -230M with 380M debt at 49M interest expense TTM - interest exceeds operating income (49M) creating structural cash drain[Total Debt / Interest Expense]
- Goodwill of 128M is 36% of total assets (355M) on negative equity base - any impairment directly hits already negative book value[Goodwill]
- Operating margin 15.5% vs industry median 8.2% shows franchise model efficiency, but -15% net margin reveals debt burden consuming profits[Operating Margin TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds Operating Income for 2+ consecutive quarters — Signals unsustainable capital structure requiring immediate action
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negative or falls below 10M — Only 14M FCF cushion - decline triggers liquidity crisis
- Total Debt: Any refinancing announcement or covenant breach — 380M debt at current rates is existential - terms matter more than operations
Bull Case
Asset-light franchise model generates 68% gross margin and 14M FCF TTM despite debt load - proves core business viability if capital structure fixed
P/S of 0.88x vs industry median 1.48x prices in distress - successful deleveraging could unlock 70%+ multiple expansion
Bear Case
Capital structure is broken: 380M debt on -230M equity with interest consuming 100% of operating income leaves zero margin for error
Tangible book value of -425M means equity holders wiped out in liquidation - pure option value on turnaround execution
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Debt refinancing or equity raise likely within 12-18 months as interest burden exceeds operating capacity
- Interest expense (49M) equals operating income (49M)
- Net debt 334M vs market cap 279M
- Negative equity limits borrowing capacity
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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XPOF Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$300.19M | — | ||
$655.12M | — | ||
795 | — | ||
$315.13M | -3.5% | — | |
$0.01 | — | ||
15.5% | +6.6% | — | |
-14.9% | -5.0% | — | |
$13.84M | +1002.2% | — | |
0.00 | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
XPOF Dividend History
XPOF Stock Splits
XPOF SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
11/10/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/08/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/09/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/14/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/12/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/05/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/06/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
03/04/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/08/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/07/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/05/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/06/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/10/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/12/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/13/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/07/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/12/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/25/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
07/26/21 | 03/31/21 | 424B4 | |
07/26/21 | 12/31/20 | 424B4 | |
11/12/21 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/25/21 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/26/21 | 03/31/20 | 424B4 |