XR

Xerox Holdings Corp

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Xerox Holdings Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-15

Snapshot

  • Tangible book value is -2.8B with debt/equity at 12.1x - equity is essentially goodwill (2.2B) backing 4.4B debt[Tangible Book Value]
  • Revenue up 28% TTM but operating income is -75M and net loss -977M - growth destroying value[Operating Income TTM]
  • FCF of 283M (4.3% margin) vs 977M net loss - cash generation masking earnings deterioration[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 200M or turns negativeOnly lifeline servicing 199M annual interest - loss of FCF = liquidity crisis
  • Operating Margin TTM: Remains negative for 2+ consecutive quartersSignals M&A integration failing and restructuring insufficient
  • Goodwill: Impairment charge announced2.2B goodwill vs 365M common equity - any writedown eliminates book value

Bull Case

FCF positive at 283M TTM despite losses - if M&A synergies materialize, cash could service debt and fund turnaround

Free Cash Flow TTMCash Flow TTM

P/S ratio 0.05x vs industry median 1.5x - extreme discount prices in permanent decline or offers asymmetric upside

P/S RatioEnterprise Value

Bear Case

Net debt 3.9B is 11x market cap (349M) - any refinancing stress or covenant breach could wipe equity

Net DebtTotal DebtDebt to Equity

ROIC of -20% TTM destroying capital while goodwill (2.2B) exceeds total equity (579M) - impairment risk material

ROIC TTMGoodwillTotal Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

Restructuring and M&A integration will determine survival - current capital structure unsustainable

1-3ylow
  • 835M acquisition spend TTM requiring integration
  • 199M interest expense on 4.4B debt
  • 59M restructuring charges ongoing
Debt/equity 12.1x vs industry medianOperating margin -1.1% vs industry +5.1%Net debt 3.9B vs market cap 349M

Valuation Context

Caveats

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